Youth for the Win

Democracy Corps released a new Youth for the Win poll analysis today. As in previous surveys, youth engagement continues to increase and is now higher than ever, particularly among young African Americans and non-college youth:

A 70 percent majority of young people agree they are more involved in this election than in previous elections, up from 54 percent two months ago. Among Democrats, this number jumped from 63 percent to 75 percent. As dramatic as the rise among African Americans (from 59 percent to 77 percent). Nearly a third of young people say they plan on getting involved, urging people to vote on Election Day. No doubt, this is overstated, but it is an important indicator of young people’s commitment. It is also striking exactly who makes this commitment. The number is higher among community college students than four-year college students (33 percent and 27 percent, respectively). The number jumps to 41 percent among African Americans and 30 percent among Hispanic voters.

As the poll analysis goes on to state, it's no longer a question of whether or not young people will turnout in record numbers. They will. The question we all need to examine now is how far down the ballot will that engagement carry?

All told, 20 percent among young people who are likely voters say they will only vote for President and just 62 percent commit to finish the entire ballot. In the web sample, the problem grows worse. Less than half (47 percent) of minority voters interviewed on the web say they will finish the ballot. Among all young people of color, just 57 percent say they will complete the ballot.

In other words, 20 percent of the two most progressive voting blocks in the electorate may not participate in down ballot elections, dampening the size of the prospective Democratic wave in congressional and state legislative races.

So what can we do to lessen that gap and maximize youth turnout down ballot? Democracy Corps offers a few messages and strategies. First, a look at what young people are thinking about on the issues:

A 56 percent majority of young people are afraid for their country’s future. Just 34 percent are optimistic about their country’s future. Even more so than older voters, young people believe we are on the brink of financial collapse. By a 62 to 28 percent margin, young people argue “this financial crisis puts us on the edge of a crash like the Great Depression.” A Democracy Corps battleground survey taken two weeks ago, just 44 percent of likely voters believed we were on the brink of a Great Depression.1 Not surprisingly, both big banks (20 percent positive, 39 percent negative) and Wall Street (24 percent positive, 38 percent negative) suffer some in the opinion of young people.

In particular it is younger, non-white youth who most need to be targeted with down-ballot campaigns:

So what can a congressional or state legislative campaign do to increase down-ballot turnout among youth? Don't be cute or try to hard to be hip. Coopt the Obama "brand" and target them with serious messages addressing the importance of building a solid team to bring about real change in our government, from the top down.

In terms of messaging, groups committed to turn out young people need to keep in mind how serious young people are taking this election. Often times, get out the vote efforts aimed at attracting the attention of young people try to be to hip or proactive; these efforts can come off as patronizing in the best of times; in the worst of times, they are close to insulting. To state it plainly, young people believe the country is in crisis, particularly in terms of the economy. They are in a serious mood and are voting and participating in record numbers because they believe the country needs change.

Here are the two specific down-ballot messages that Democracy Corps found most resonated with young people:

• Barack Obama can't change Washington alone; he will need a team behind him to support his policies in Congress and the Senate to get anything done.
• This nation faces a crisis; we are fighting two wars, the economy is in shambles, and our financial institutions are melting down; now more than ever, the citizens of this country need to take on Washington and make our voices heard at all levels of government, not just president.

It's important to note that these were not necessarily partisan messages. Young people did not respond favorably to partisan appeals or attempts to coerce them into straight-party voting. These messages need to be serious, and appeal to a desire to come together and solve the nation's problems. Young people respond to pragmatism, not partisanship.

One final note - the DCorps poll analysis suggested that young people, in addition to rejecting straight-ticket voting, responded favorably to messages and campaigns that provide the maximum amount of information - links, voter guides, etc. - so that young people could make up their own minds before casting a ballot. Campaigns that provide such information, in conjunction with the types of messages listed above, should have the greatest success in getting out the youth vote in their down-ballot race.

Democracy Corps just released another poll in their “Youth for the Win” series. Not a lot of time (I'm at the RNC), so here's a brief look at the highlights of their report:

The Numbers:
Obama still maintains a significant and stable lead over McCain in this most recent poll at 57 - 29 percent. Obama lost some support among young white voters, but McCain is tanking among young independents.

Most interesting - Nader and Bob Barr are pulling 11% of the support from Independents, or 2% each overall from both McCain and Obama.

Issues
The big news coming out of this survey is the astounding degree to which economic concerns are at the forefront of young voters' minds.

We teach children in this country to reach for their dreams, well here's a look at the dreams of young america:

What does it say when the #1 life goal of young voters is paying off their debt?

Here's how that plays out at the political level:

The good news is that most young voters believe that one of the best ways to accomplish these goals is to elect Barack Obama:

Here are Democracy Corps recommendations for making that a reality:

• Progressives need to continue to nurture young people’s optimism about the possibility of change. The approach needs to be aspirational in the broad sense that things can be—will be—different and also make plain that absent the right outcome, absent the election of Barack Obama, real change is unlikely at best.
• At the same time, the approach needs to be grounded in the economic reality of this constituency. It is impossible to overestimate the importance of the economy in engaging young people in this election. Obviously, almost every segment in the country will identify the economy as their leading concern. But for young people— many struggling with entry-level jobs with no benefits, many struggling with a crushing burden of debt, most struggling with a single income—the Bush economy has been particularly cruel. The approach here should be relentlessly pragmatic, stripped of flowery rhetoric and, most important, convey a sense of immediacy and urgency.
• Progressives cannot assume young people are immune from the same dynamics that are stirring the rest of the electorate. As noted, we see some defection among white Democrats and McCain outperforming Obama among partisans for the first time in this survey. (An Obama surge among white Independents disguises the impact). Obama will win this cohort decisively, but the margin and the turnout remain in question.
• Progressives need to continue to better define John McCain in this election cycle, particularly after his convention. If anything, the new polling in this period, including this project, underscores the need to draw sharper contrasts.

Methodological note: As usual, I want to note that while Democracy Corps are partisans, they also have one of the best methodologies out there when it comes to polling young voters. This poll comes from a sample of 600 young people (18 – 29) reached by cell phone, the web, and traditional landlines. As such, it accounts for “cell only” voters and is likely much more accurate than the polls produced by traditional polling firms and media outlets.

Democracy Corps just released another poll in their Youth for the Win series, this time examining the state of the race between Obama and McCain, and testing messages that most resonate with young voters. Their conclusion: contrary to other assertions, Obama's lead among young voters is holding steady and the economy remains the top issue for young voters and the most successful way to maintain their support.

First let's look at the numbers. Earlier this week, Zogby released a "shocker" of a poll showing that Obama had lost 16 points and McCain had gained 20 among young voters, closing the gap to a 49 - 38% Obama lead among youth. At the time, I suggested that Zogby's sample size was much too small and that the numbers were still likely close to those we saw in teh 2006 election.

Today's Democracy Corps Poll - which has a much larger sample size and focused solely on young voters using a combination of landline, online and cellphone polling - confirms what I wrote: Obama maintains a stable 60 - 33% lead among young voters. For comparison, Kerry won the youth vote 54 - 45%, and in 2006 Democrats took the youth vote 60 - 38%. So not only is Obama's youth vote support holding stable overall, it is actually higher than Democratic support in any recent election.

Obama's support is softening among white, fiscally solvent youth. In that group he and McCain are statistically tied. However Obama has offset those losses by increasing his margin among young African Americans and young voters under financial strain. Among those financially burdened youth, Obama is actually outperforming the Democratic expectations:

The poll notes that the economy remains the #1 issue among young voters, but notes that the current debate - focused on the mortgage crisis, oil, trade and taxes - does not adequately address the economic concerns of young people, who are worried about gas prices, health care and medical bills, student debt, and entry level jobs. Addressing these issues is the best way to gain traction among young people (or shore up support), but also the achilles heel that could lower support for either candidate.

Democracy Corps notes that McCain's favorability ratings among youth are rising, in part fueled by worry over the economy and high gas prices. The gas issue is so strong among young voters, that it is even overcoming environmental concerns and more young people are becoming receptive to McCain's messages about drilling. While McCain has hammered Obama on these issues over the last month, Obama has yet to fight back. Absent such attacks, Obama is allowing McCain to make some inroads and define the issue.

Democracy Corps tested a number of messages - both positive messages on the economy from Obama, and attack messages to be directed against McCain - that it recommends organizers use to define McCain and shore up Obama's support: