voter registration

Thanks to great work by Oregon Bus Project founder-turned state legislator Jefferson Smith (and other legislators), online voter registration is about to become a reality in Oregon:

Online Voter Registration Approved by Senate

Online registration plan is simple, secure and has proven successful

SALEM – The Senate today voted in favor of HB 2386, which would allow Oregonians to register to vote online. Online voter registration creates a new avenue to register that is simple, hassle-free and, above all, secure.

"Oregonians pay bills online, check bank accounts online, rent movies online, pay taxes online. We can change our address with the US Postal Service and DMV online. With this bill, we will move our voter registration system into the 21st century by allowing people to register to vote online,” said Representative Ben Cannon (D-Portland), who is the Chief Co-Sponsor of the bill along with Representative Jefferson Smith (D-Portland). "This bill takes a significant step toward a secure, hassle-free system of voter registration."

House Bill 2386 would allow eligible voters with valid Oregon Driver Licenses or ID cards to register to vote online through a secure connection on the Secretary of State website. A registrant’s signature from DMV will be used to match against the signature on the ballot. A registrant would first have to indicate under penalty of law that they are a citizen and that they are at least 17 years old, just like on the current form.

“HB 2386 represents a lot of work by folks who are passionate about access to democracy,” said Representative Jefferson Smith (D-Portland). “This bill’s passage is a milestone in Oregon’s voter access movement. We believe that democracy works better if more people do it.”

HB 2386 would model Oregon’s online voter registration system on those of Washington and Arizona, where the programs have proven extremely popular. In 2003, the first year of Arizona's Online Voter Registration program, 25% of all new voter registrations were done online. In 2007, that percentage jumped to 72%. After Washington implemented online voter registration, 1,634 online applications were recorded in the first three days and 38% of all Washington voter registrations in 2008 were done online.

“Oregon needs laws that make registering to vote accessible and easy for every eligible voter,” said Secretary of State Kate Brown. “This is simple, stable and will bring more voters, especially younger voters, into the process of shaping Oregon’s future.”

HB 2386 is headed back to the House for concurrence on Senate amendments. It will then head to the Governor for his signature.

Now we need to see movement on more reforms that can make voter registration and participation painless, like automatic registration or election day registration.

I've written many times about HeadCount, the voter registration organization that originated within the jam band scene (disclosure: I'm on the advisory board). I think they've put together an amazing, national organization that accomplishes real political work without sacrificing the vibe of a small, tight-knit community. If you've ever been to a HeadCount show, you know there's a real connection between the fans, the music and the politics.

Over the last four years, they've built this community with far fewer resources than other political nonprofits, and they've expanded beyond their roots in the jam band scene. Now, they're morphing once again.

Yesterday, HeadCount relaunched their website and announced that they're expanding beyond their core work - voter registration - and into the realm of issue advocacy:

Building on the momentum of registering more than 100,000 voters last year, HeadCount has launched a new campaign called “What’s Your Issue?” that encourages fans of live music to take the next steps beyond voting to become more informed, active citizens. Anyone who answers a brief issue survey – either at a concert or online at www.HeadCount.org – will be entered in a drawing to win two free VIP tickets to Outside Lands Music Festival, held in San Francisco’s Golden Gate Park August 28-30, 2009, plus round-trip airfare for two on Southwest Airlines from anywhere in the U.S.

The campaign will visit concert tour stops this summer by Dave Matthews Band, Phish, The Fray and NINJA (Nine Inch Nails and Janes Addiction). Festivals such as Bonnaroo, ROTHBURY, High Sierra Music Festival, All Good Music Festival, Camp Bisco and Gathering of the Vibes will also host the “What’s Your Issue?” campaign. [...]

HeadCount continues to offer voter information and registration services at its concert tables and at www.HeadCount.org. The organization also provides a wide range of resources that facilitate civic participation. The HeadCount blog (www.HeadCount.org/blog) is a one-stop online community updated daily with news on “Music, Politics and Everything In Between.” HeadCount street teams are partnering with local nonprofit organizations, such as Save the Bay, and creating joint volunteer outings. HeadCount makes it easy to write to members of Congress, with pre-printed letters available at concerts and online at www.HeadCount.org. It’s all part of an effort to give music fans the tools to be involved, active citizens, while creating a real community of fans who are bound by shared ideals.

The “What’s Your Issue?” survey serves as the gateway to the HeadCount community. It lists six issues that, according to a recent online poll, are particularly important to fans of live music. They are:

• Food and Farm Policy
• Health Care Reform
• Personal Liberty
• Gulf Coast Recovery
• Human Rights
• Sustainability and Conservation

Once someone identifies the issue most important to them, they are sent a link to an area of HeadCount.org devoted to that issue. Users will find a blog, background information, artist interviews and links to related websites. Most important, they’ll also find a “Take Action” area that enables them to volunteer for a related organization or email their Congressional representatives.

This is a great organization and a great campaign. And their new website is super clean and a cut well above their previous site. As usual, I can't recommend HeadCount highly enough. Go check them out.

The Project Vote Blog had an interesting piece that turned my head this week about the voter registration rate this past election.

After all of the work we did - we meaning the folks at CREDO who developed the online voter registration widget Rock the Vote and many others used. The in person voting HeadCount did, and the thousands of other people affiliated with hundreds of campaigns and groups across the country, we had a net gain of about 1% in voter registration according to Project Vote's findings (PDF).

Not to belittle 1%, its actually quite good when you look at the numbers, and when we look at some of the states where elections were very close I can guarantee that those new voters made a difference. Still, there needs to be a new way that we work to cultivate new registrants that garners higher results.

"While measures to provide voter registration or voter education opportunities for voting eligible Americans are important, three states have taken a step beyond by moving legislation to not only address the issue of standardizing the voter registration system, but to engage the future of America before they reach the age of 18" says Project Vote.

Hawaii and Florida are the only two states that currently offer such a registration option. In April, however, Project Vote reported other states are developing legislation for similar laws allowing pre-registration to 16 year olds. It might be easier, their blog says, to engage youth in high school and at the DMV.

"In the last few weeks, legislators passed preregistration bills through at least one chamber in California (AB 30), Michigan (HB 4261 and HB 4337), and North Carolina (HB 1260). The Michigan and North Carolina bills have been assigned to their respective Senate committees while the California bill awaits its final reading on the Senate floor. Passage of the California bill is thought to be most significant due to its growing and diverse population, particularly among its young residents."

They're right, one of the biggest problems we have as a movement is targeting non-college youth because there is no central location that connects with them. The closest org I think that comes close is HeadCount who walks the entrance lines at concerts and asks people to register. You're getting college and non-college youth, but primarily concert goers and festival lovers. My kind of voters, but still not a broad selection.

High school programs are few and far between, many high school students aren't 18 so it seems like a smaller population from which to choose. The difference is... all of them will be 18. With laws in place that allow early registration, high school outreach could have a huge success rate to ensure youth are registered when they turn 18.

SAVE has worked with members of Congress and the Senate to pass the Student Voter Opportunity to Encourage Registration (VOTER) Act which was introduced in the US Senate today by Sen. Dick Derbin (D-IL). According to yesterday's release:

The Act "will require all colleges and universities that receive federal funds to provide their students with an opportunity to register to vote as they "enroll in a course of study."

"Many students are first-time voters and are often unfamiliar with how to register to vote. Our bill would make registering to vote as simple as registering for class," said Senator Durbin. "Making voter registration more accessible will remove one burden preventing young people from getting involved in our democracy."

Texas recently passed interesting legislation that would require each high school principal to designate four people as deputy registrars.

According to the bill HB1654

"The four deputies could be either employees of the high school or employees of the school district in which the high school was located and who were serving at the high school. At least three of the four would have to be classroom teachers or certified full-time counselors."

State and Federal leaders along with many organizations across the country are working on many different levels to fix what is a continuous problem in American Elections. To monitor preregistration and other election bills, visit www.electionlegislation.org. To continue to watch federal legislation for the VOTER Act stay tuned to SAVE

I've written multiple times, on many different blogs, about the need for fundamental voter registration reform. Normally I make that case on behalf of the young voter/voter registration community. The most recent data from CIRCLE put young voter turnout in 2008 at 51.1% - one of the highest rates ever, yet still lower than any other portion the electorate. But we also know that upwards of 80% of all registered young voters actually make it to the polls to cast their ballot - a turnout rate not much lower than that of the rest of the electorate.

The conclusion is simple, and one that we are all familiar with: voter registration is a barrier to participation, and reforming it could well be the single most effective means of creating lasting gains in voter turnout rates, especially among young people. Such reforms are in the works, and the proposed changes usually include some form of automatic registration and/or election day registration failsafes.

One of the biggest hurdles in achieving such reform is convincing the various local Secretaries of State that such reforms are in their interest and, rather than increase their burdens, will make their jobs easier. Secretaries of State will wield enormous influence over the outcome of a voter registration reform debate. Without their support, it will be difficult to convince Senators or Congressmen to sign on to any voter reform legislation. That's why a new report by the US PIRG Education Fund on the cost effectiveness of voter registration reform is so important: Saving Dollars, Saving Democracy - Cost Savings for Local Elections Officials Through Voter Registration Modernization (pdf).

In a survey of 100 counties, the report found that:

• Over $33,467,910.00 of public money was spent on simple registration and error-correction issues in 2008.
• That equals $86,977.00 of the elections budgets in counties with populations under 50,000.
• The average office in counties with 50,000 to 200,000 people spent $248,091.00.
• The average county elections office in jurisdictions of 200,000 to around one million people spent $1,079,610.00.
• Some of the largest counties in our survey spent far more than this average, for example St Louis County, with a population of 995,118, conservatively spent over 3 million dollars on registration implementation and issues in the 2008 cycle.

In addition to the monetary costs of the current system, the report also outlines other inefficiencies that current boards of election routinely face, and which could be overcome through sensible reform of the registration process:

• Missing Information: inaccurate, incomplete, duplicated, or illegible forms;
• Citizen Confusion: a lack of clarity for any particular registrant concerning citizenship status;
• Overtime/Staffing: there are many problems and costs associated with hiring part-time staff or paying overtime to data-entry floods of forms in time for Election Day;
• Acknowledgment Cards: some states require a card be sent to registrants to confirm registration details;
• Reaching voters in rural areas: states face challenges when reaching out to register eligible citizens across a geographically complex rural jurisdiction; and
• Provisional ballot printings, mailings, and outreach: once a registrant is not accurately entered, HAVA requires that they be allowed to cast a day-of-election provisional ballot. States must provide said ballot, and then in order for it to count, states need to follow up with the voter and state to determine their registration status.

The report makes a number of recommendations on what effective, efficient reform would look like:

1. A federal mandate should be passed to require affirmative and automatic registration. Specified and privacy-protected data transfers and information sharing should occur from federal and state databases to the state voter rolls as a means of continuously updating the list. By eliminating the data entry and duplicate and error verification follow-up responsibilities of local officials, there will be large cost savings at the county level.
2. Federal funding should be provided to make it possible for states to implement this mandate.
3. States should also use specified private database transfers or information sharing to keep citizens on the rolls permanently at their most up-to-date address.
4. States should perform same-day balloting as a catch-all for citizens.

The full report offers regional, state, and municipal data on all of the inefficiencies outlined above. At some point in the next few years, we are likely to face a fight in congress over voter registration reform. Ground zero in that fight will be convincing local Secretaries of State that they should be in favor of reform rather than the status quo. This new report (pdf) by US PIRG Education Fund is an invaluable information for those looking to construct effective arguments in favor of reform.

Congratulations to Colorado-based youth organizers New Era Colorado for writing and shepherding a bill for online voter registration through their state house and senate. The bill is now on its way to the governor's desk:

Denver, CO - April 23, 2009 – The Colorado Senate voted 33-0 today on a bill that will soon allow Colorado residents to register to vote online at the secure Secretary of State’s website. This bill modernizes the voter registration process in Colorado, significantly increases voter accessibility, and saves taxpayer money.

Only 2 other states, Arizona and Washington, currently provide voters with the option to register to vote online. In Arizona, voter registration numbers increased by 10% in the first year of the online option being available and over 70% of registrations now occur online. When Washington instituted online voter registration in 2008, almost 40% of new voters registered online. In the first six months, half of the new registrants were under the age of 30.

“This bill brings the traditionally complicated and cumbersome voter registration process into the 21st Century. We do almost everything online these days—banking, paying bills, filing taxes—we should be able to do our civic duty of registering to vote online, too,” says Steve Fenberg, Executive Director of New Era Colorado, the lead organization that initiated, drafted, and lobbied the bill in the Legislature.

The online form will allow current Colorado voters to update their registration record with address changes and mail-in ballot status and will allow first time registrants to register to vote online if they have a Colorado Driver’s License or ID. For the first time registrants, the digitized signature from their Driver’s License or ID will be used as the required signature on a voter registration form.

“I think this bill can be a game-changer in Colorado politics—not in terms of Republican or Democrat victories, but in terms of the number of young people engaging in the democratic process. This is a big victory for New Era Colorado and young people across our state,” says Fenberg.

“We see this bill as a long-term opportunity to increase youth registration levels, but we also see it as a near-term opportunity to show our volunteers and interns how to participate in the legislative process,” says Carrie Jackson, Program Director of New Era Colorado. New Era Colorado members helped draft the legislation, wrote thousands of supportive letters to Representatives and Senators, and participated in committee hearings to help pass the online voter registration bill. These volunteers also helped New Era Colorado register over 11,000 young people to vote during the 2008 Election Cycle.

Rep. Joe Miklosi (D-Denver) sponsored the bill in the House, where it a received a 60-4 vote, and Senator Bob Bacon (D-Fort Collins) sponsored it in the Senate. It will soon head to Governor Ritter's desk for signing.

TPM has a great piece about young people this week, speaking specifically about how our turnout has caused problems in the voting systems because our transient nature apparently causes added paperwork at the county election board.

Now, it seems, some states are moving to the "universal registration" route where 16 year olds become registered the same time as the are getting their driver's license, but of course can't vote until they are 18.

"California and Rhode Island are among the states that have introduced legislation permitting 16- and 17-year-old citizens to register to vote in advance of their 18th birthdays. Rhode Island bills, SB 85 and HB 5005 show promise to pass the legislature - a prospect that is nothing new to the state, which has passed such bills three years in a row only to have them vetoed by the governor, according to research and advocacy group, Fair Vote."

Universal registration is something that Rock the Vote has taken on as their major legislative agenda item and the Student PIRGs have taken on in the past.

Georgia10 from Kos makes a great point about the ACORN attacks this past fall:

"By so vigorously highlighting the very real problems with third-party registration model, the GOP has unwittingly provided the best argument in favor of having the government step in and facilitate a universal registration system. And so, the irony is that in trying to suppress voter turnout by calling even valid registrations into question, Republicans have opened the door to a long-overdue discussion on how best to reform our inherently flawed voter registration system in order to ensure that every American who has the right to vote may do so without redtape barriers."

TPM asserts that by creating a government structure that mandates pre-registration certainly makes things much more convienent, but it also makes it easier to do programming in high schools and at DMVs because you can access the information about young people before they escape to college and out of their parents' home.

"it also helps "boost the effectiveness of civics education by tying it directly to civic participation through the opportunity to preregister," according to a Fair Vote report. The report further notes that "uniform" preregistration laws, like those in Hawaii and Florida, help alleviate general voter registration ills by acting as a "cost-effective step toward greater standardization, which means a cleaner, more accurate data set. Pre-registration could also save money and minimize human error by allowing students to register year round at points of civic engagement and education..."

TPM also had a great piece about the diversity that occurred this election. It was a particularly youthy day over at the TPM - good for them!

You know em... ya love em... its the elected officials and supporters of the Student VOTER Act joined together to talk about how important it is to pass!

Thursday's Press Conference was awesome. Rep. Wasserman Schultz, Rep. Tim Ryan, Rep. Meek, and Rep. Schakowsky all joined in support of this bill.

Rep. Schakowsky (pictured right)said that we want more people to vote in our elections not create more barriers. She further said "we have a special responsibility to promote civic education" talking about the very essence of voting and the civic duty we all have to participate in such a crucial part of our democracy. She assured the audience that they would get both parties to pass this bill.

Rep. Meek said the bill "just makes good sense" further agreeing that everyone eligible should be registered to vote.

Ian Storrar from Mobilize.org went further saying that if we have more voices working together we enact better policies.

The event was a great success and the bill is sure to progress. Empirical evidence suggests that voter registration is the greatest hurdle to young voter participation. According to a 2004 study by CIRCLE, 22% of 18-29 year olds who did not vote did so because they missed the registration deadline. An additional 10% of that age group did not know where or how to register to vote. Therefore, a combined 32% of 18-29 year olds who did not participate in the election did so because of uncertainties in the registration process.

The Student VOTER Act will guarantee that students have at least a fighting chance to register and make a difference in every election, not just the elections that maintain youth outreach.

Youth organizations from across the country are working to support this bill including:
Student Association for Voter Empowerment
United States Student Association
People for the American Way
Common Cause
League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC)
Mexican-American Legal Defense & Educational Fund (MALDEF)
People For the American Way
U.S. PIRG
Rock the Vote
Mobilize.org
The Roosevelt Institution
Campus Progress Action
Voto Latino
Young Democrats of America
18 in 08’
Students for Barack Obama
College Democrats of America
New Era Colorado
Advocates for Youth
FairVote
Fair Elections Legal Network

More legislative news, this time at the state level. Today the Oregon State House passed an online voter registration bill by a bipartisan vote of 45 to 8. The legislation moves on to the Oregon State Senate soon and is expected to have broad support.

Rep. Ben Cannon, the Chief Sponsor of the bill released the following statement after the House vote:

SALEM – The House today voted in favor of HB 2386, which would allow Oregonians to register to vote online. Online voter registration creates a new avenue to register that is simple, hassle-free and, above all, secure.

"Oregonians pay bills online, check bank accounts online, rent movies online, pay taxes online. We can change our address with the US Postal Service and DMV online. With this bill, we will move our voter registration system into the 21st century by allowing people to register to vote online,” said Representative Ben Cannon (D-Portland), who is the Chief Sponsor of the bill. "This bill takes a significant step toward a secure, hassle-free system of voter registration."

House Bill 2386 would allow eligible voters with valid Oregon Driver Licenses or ID cards to register to vote online through a secure connection on the Secretary of State website. A registrant’s signature from DMV will be used to match against the signature on the ballot. A registrant would first have to indicate under penalty of law that they are a citizen and that they are 17 years old, just like on the current form.

“Oregon needs laws that make registering to vote accessible and easy for every eligible voter,” said Secretary of State Kate Brown. “This is simple, stable and will bring more voters, especially younger voters, into the process of shaping Oregon’s future.”

HB 2386 would model Oregon’s online voter registration system on those of Washington and Arizona, where the programs have proven extremely popular. In 2003, the first year of Arizona's Online Voter Registration program, 25% of all new voter registrations were done online. In 2007, that percentage jumped to 72%. After Washington implemented online voter registration, 1,634 online applications were recorded in the first three days and 38% of all Washington voter registrations in 2008 were done online.

“The passage of this bill represents the culmination of a lot of work by folks who are passionate about access to democracy,” said Representative Jefferson Smith (D-Portland). “The passage of this bill is part of a necessary movement around voter access – democracy works better if more people do it.”
HB 2386 now moves to the Senate for consideration.

For the text of the bill, visit here.

Back in December, when the Presidential Transition was just beginning to ramp up, I wrote two pieces about the current state and future of progressive youth organizing:

• Framing the Youth Movement
• Where Do We Go From Here?

These were pretty high level, 30,000 foot views. Today, having finished the transition period, I want to talk a little more specifically about what I think the youth organizing space needs to accomplish in 2009 and 2010 in order to push this "movement," (such that is one) forward beyond the electoral work that has primarily defined us for 4 years. These are the four main themes that I think need to define our work, and this is where Future Majority will likely focus its efforts in 2009:

• Spread Internal Policy and Lobbying Expertise: What little institutional knowledge the youth community has when it comes to moving legislation is locked up in a few orgs with professional lobbying staff (USSA, PIRG, maybe Energy Action). We need to create a mechanism to unlock and spread that knowledge out to the rest of the community. Furthermore, we need to grow our organizational and personal social networks on the Hill and find allies who can guide us through the process, sponsor bills, and give us greater entre into DC. It was my hope that the White House Youth Liaison might in part be an ally in this process, but at this time the transition is completed and there is no word from the Administration as to whether or not such a position will even be created let alone staffed with someone who will be a competent and forceful ally.
• Resist Issue and Age Silos: A framework needs to be created under which youth organizations working on different issues can endorse and support each other. We are strongest when we act together and demographically speaking the vast majority of Millennials are going to be on the same side of a number of issues. It's widely recognized that siloization of issues in the progressive movement was detrimental overall, we should recognize that and be conscious not segregate ourselves along issue lines. Likewise, our work shouldn't be separate from the work of "older" progressive organizations. Progressive campaigns should all have youth-targeted components and rather than run our own programs, we should be running the youth-targeted pieces of these larger campaigns.
• Voter Registration Reform is a Game Changer: We are all excited to make headway on major issues like climate change, green jobs, education funding, and restoring civil liberties, but our success in all of those areas in part depends on high levels of youth participation at the polls. Maintaining those levels of engagement is a resource intensive endeavor that never stops. It sucks up millions of dollars and thousands of staff hours per year. Automatic Universal Registration with an Election Day Registration fail-safe, as proposed by Rock the Vote, could potentially guarantee that 2008 is not the last time we see 53% turnout or higher among youth. It would also put dozens of youth groups effectively out of the voter registration business, saving millions of dollars a year that could instead be spent on GOTV, issue campaigns, and leadership development. That would change the youth organizing space in profound and fundamental ways, I think perhaps for the better. I would like to see some form of AUVR and EDR passed during this Congress, and get all youth groups out of the voter reg business by 2012.
• Reform the Democratic Part(ies) and Party Committees: As I've noted many times, Obama's engagement of young voters remains the exception, not the rule in Democratic politics. We've had a lot of great rhetoric from Howard Dean's DNC about the importance of young voters, but very few campaigns or state parties took that to heart, and Dean's words never translated to a stronger, better resourced youth infrastructure within the Democratic Party. The best that could be said of Dean's tenure with regard to youth participation in the party is that we saw the creation of the Youth Council, and entity that is still getting its legs and fighting for power, and we saw a higher number of youth delegates at the Democratic convention, something more attributable to Obama's candidacy then to any policy or program instituted by Gov. Dean. The argument for greater inclusion of youth within the party structure, and the codification of youth outreach and engagement as a sound strategy practiced by the state parties and party committees has never been stronger. Over the next 4 years we are going to need to make that case so that the Democratic Party does not squander the opportunity of a generation. This is another area in which I hoped a White House Youth Liaison would be helpful. At the moment, it seems as though we'll need to just wait and see what Jennifer Dillon O'Mally and Mitch Stewart, respectively, do now that they are officially in control of the DNC and Organizing for America.

These are what I see as the four main tasks ahead of us in terms of creating greater coherency and power for our movement over the coming years, and adapting to the new power structure in DC and our relation to it. What do you think? Did I leave anything out or misrepresent anything?

Bumped. Thanks to Project Vote for two great and relevant diaries while I'm away for the holiday. --Mike

The United States saw dramatic increases in voting from traditionally underrepresented groups, including minorities and young voters, according to a new analysis released this week by Project Vote. If borne out by systematic analysis of the voter rolls, this change in the electorate is evidence of the power of successful voter registration drives and an indication of the strong inclination of voters to participate in the process when candidates address their issues.

Countering the conventional wisdom that the voting population on November 4 did not change as dramatically as predicted, the analysis, The Demographics of Voters in America’s 2008 General Election: A Preliminary Assessment, demonstrates that African-Americans, Latinos, and young voters cast millions more ballots in 2008 than in 2004.

“The analysis estimated that about 5.8 million more minorities voted in this year's presidential election than in 2004, while nearly 1.2 million fewer whites went to the polls,” wrote Greg Gordon of McClatchy Newspapers. “The figures appear to reflect the success of Project Vote and other liberal voter registration groups in registering millions of young, poor, elderly and minority Americans to vote in recent election cycles.”

According to the analysis, African-Americans cast nearly three million more ballots nationwide in 2008 than in 2004—an increase of 21 percent. The total votes cast by Latinos went up by 16 percent—more than 1.5 million—and young Americans aged 18-29 cast 1.8 million more votes, a nine percent increase. That the overall totals did not increase significantly compared to 2004 was in part due to a decrease in voting by white voters.

In addition to presenting an analysis of ballots cast from the United States as a whole, the memo by Project Vote consultant and Ph.D. candidate Jody Herman and Barnard College political science professor Lorraine Minnite examines several key states in detail, including Colorado, Florida, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

The Project Vote data is preliminary, and does not speak to “turnout,” which is traditionally a measure of the percentage of the voting-eligible population that shows up to vote. Project Vote expects to release a full report on turnout in the 2008 election in 2009 when government survey data on the voting-eligible population comes available. Yet, this preliminary analysis indicates that a significant shift occurred this year.

“There is no doubt that this surge in voting by Americans of color and young people had a powerful impact on the outcome of the election,” said Michael Slater, executive director of Project Vote, in a press release issued today.

“Separate opinion polls and election results themselves indicate that an overwhelming majority of African-Americans and Latinos backed Obama,” according to Gordon.

“Thus, the appearance of an African-American presidential candidate with a sympathetic message may have prompted the nation's minorities to vote at levels approaching white voters -- if final state vote counts do not upend Project Vote's figures,” wrote AlterNet's Steve Rosenfeld last week. “Its findings also suggest the U.S. electorate is not an inflexible assembly of voting constituencies, but has segments that are mobilized -- or demobilized -- depending on the year, candidate and message,”

In an email exchange with Rosenfeld, Frank Sharry, executive director of pro-immigration reform group, America's Voice, said “neither the turnout increase among Latinos -- nor the swing in support to Democrats -- were surprising.”

“Telling people you don't like them and don't want them is not a winning electoral strategy,” wrote Sharry. “But that is what the Republican Party has been saying to immigrants, Latino immigrants in particular, for the past four years. No surprise, then, that record numbers of Latinos turned out in 2008 and that the swing away from Republicans to Democrats among Latino immigrants in particular was dramatic.”