Vermont

The DNC Youth Council has announced three more trainings for the state delegate election process. If you don't want to get cut, you might want to get on this call:

Subject: Upcoming DNC Youth Council Delegate Selection Trainings

Friends and Colleagues--

One of the goals of the DNC's Youth Council is to increase the number of young delegates (those under 36) to the Democratic National Convention. We have already held several conference call trainings on the process to be a delegate. The trainings were extremely successful and we are eager to get underway with our next round of calls.

Below one will find a listing of some of our upcoming calls. Please spread the word to as many people as possible about these. On each call we will be joined by a member of that respective state's party to go over the process to be a Congressional District, PLEO, or At-Large delegate to the Democratic National Convention. In addition to the specific training, we will be sure to provide information on how to get more involved with the State Party and other youth organizations. (If you or your organization have specific information you would like to have mentioned, please email me and let me know as soon as possible.)

The upcoming calls are:

Vermont - Thursday, April 17 at 7pm EST

Phone: 866-810-8093
Code: 822-976-6817

North Carolina - Tuesday, April 22nd at 6pm EST
Phone: 605-475-6006
Code: 792994

Texas - Monday, April 28 at 7pm EST
Phone: 605-475-6300
Code: 85383

I have to say, this is getting exhausting, covering the primary, but last night brought more good news for youth vote advocates and young people fighting for their voice to be heard.

According to CIRCLE, the youth vote tripled in Texas yesterday, with over 620,000 young people going to the polls, despite reports that many young people experienced difficulties in casting their ballots. Youth turnout in the Lonestar state hit 17%, up from 6% in 2000, and the youth share of the electorate was 15%, up from 9% in 2000.

In Ohio, almost 480,000 young voters went to the polls - nearly double the amount from 2000. The Ohio youth turnout rate was 25%, up from 15% in 2000 and confirming my suspicion that Ohio would have a higher than average turnout rate. The youth share of the Ohio electorate was 15%, up from 11% in 2000.

In both states young voters participated in the Democratic primary over the GOP primary at a rate of 2.6 to 1, continuing the trend set in almost every other contest thus far (Oklahoma and Utah being the exceptions).

As in most of the previous contests, young voters overwhelmingly chose Sen. Obama over Senator Clinton. In Ohio he captured the youth vote 61 - 35 percent. In Texas he won by a slimmer 58 - 42 percent.

Despite these wins, Clinton seems to have recaptured what little base she has among youth - non college, low income, and young Latinos. In each category Clinton erased the gains made by Senator Obama during the Potomac Primaries just a few weeks back and won those demographics.

Less data is available for Vermont and Rhode Island (CIRCLE was not able to attain the necessary data to crunch the numbers), but here's what we know from the CNN exit polls. In Rhode Island, young voters made up 13% of the electorate - up from 8% in 2004 - and Sen. Obama capture the youth vote 53 - 47 percent. In Vermont, young voters were 11% of the electorate, a slight increase over their 10% share in 2004. As in other states, they chose Obama 64 - 31%.

Still no nominee, but the surge in youth participation continues, particularly in the two states where the candidates expended the most effort to get out the vote, and young voters continue to choose Democrats over Republicans by more than 2 - 1. Good news for November, whoever the nominee will be.

Tomorrow is Junior Super Tuesday - Sen. Clinton's final firewall, if you believe it. In Texas, both campaigns are courting the growing latino youth vote, and in Ohio, Sen. Obama has indie rock stars pumping up his already uber-energized youth supporters. He may need that extra support if prediction of snow storms blanketing the state tomorrow turn out to be true.

Here's a quick look at the demographic breakdowns of the youth vote in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island. As per usual, expect youth turnout to be somewhere between the 2004 primary share of the electorate and the current share of eligible voters. If trends hold, somewhere about 4 - 5% higher than 2004 primary results is a good guess, though Ohio has been a highly targeted and competitive state in recent years and turnout might be slightly higher there.

Everyone is looking at Texas and Ohio as the make-or-break states for Clinton, and in both states she has a greater than usual advantage among young voters. Young latinos, who have been more likely to support her campaign that than of Sen. Obama, are 33% of the youth electorate in Texas, and young voters as a whole are almost one quarter of the electorate overall. Most polls are projecting a slight Obama win, but they are really all within the margin of error. Leveraging young latinos to chip away Obama's base might be Clinton's key to sneaking out a victory in the Lone Star state.

In Ohio, young voters are less likely than usual to be in college or hold a college degree. Non-college youth have been turning out in far fewer numbers than their college educated peers, but when they do turn out it has tended to be for Clinton, giving her a chance to rack up a higher than expected delegate count in the state.

So Clinton stands to do better in those two states among young voters than she normally does, but the question is does it matter? Most analysts are reporting that the delegate math doesn't favor her, and it's not clear at all that there's any successful path to the nomination at this point barring a massive revolt against Obama among the super delegates.

Warning - all the state named links are to pdf files.

Ohio

2004 Share of Primary Electorate: 9%
2008 Share of the Population: 21%
Total Youth Population: 1,750,179
White non-Hispanic: 83%
Black non-Hispanic: 12%
College Students: 18%

Texas

2004 Share of Primary Electorate: 10%
2008 Share of the Population: 24%
Total Youth Population: 3,557,968
White non-Hispanic: 49%
Black non-Hispanic: 14%
Hispanic/Latino: 33%
College Students: 19%

Vermont

2004 Share of Primary Electorate: 10%
2008 Share of the Population: 20%
Total Youth Population: 94,496
White non-Hispanic: 94%
College Students: 28%

Rhode Island

2004 Share of Primary Electorate: 8%
2008 Share of the Population: 22%
Total Youth Population: 166,116
White non-Hispanic: 82%
Other: 19%
College Students: 24%