rudy giuliani

Today is the Florida Primary. Mostly this will be a Republican affair, with Romney and McCain vying for the momentum and bragging rights to usher them into the GOP nomination, but 9u11iani is also making a last stand in the state by forgoing the NYC sunbirds and retirees that are his base and appealing instead to young Floridians.

There are two problems with that strategy - Florida is one of the only states in 2006 that actually saw a decline in youth turnout, and there are more Democratic youth than Republican youth in the state. According to CIRCLE, even though overall turnout among young voters rose by 3% in 2006, turnout in Florida fell by 5%, and young voters made up only 8% of the Florida electorate, a decrease from 9% in 2002. Also working against 9ui11ani is the fact that 38% of young Floridians identified as Democrats in 2006, vs 35% Republican, a gap that has likely increased since the midterms.

In the race for the Democratic nomination, Florida is something of a controversial state. Much like Michigan, the DNC stripped Florida of its delegates after the state moved up it's primary in a bid for more influence over the nominating process. Since then, the Democratic candidates swore-off campaigning in the state. Without targeted outreach by the campaigns, it's unlikely that the youth vote will increase its turnout in substantial numbers. I'm actually going to guess that while turnout overall will increase, we won't see huge turnout increases among 18 - 29 year olds tonight like we did in some other states. Who really knows, though. Florida is a hugely contested battleground state, and maybe Floridians will motivate themselves this time around.

Turnout certainly can't get any worse than the baseline numbers from 2004. Last cycle, young voters made up only 6% of the primary electorate. It should be noted, however, that the 2004 Florida primary occurred when 80% of all Florida students were on spring break.

As of now, the Florida delegates won't be seated at the convention, but should we head towards a brokered convention, I expect both the Clinton and Obama camps will start to play hardball on the issue. At that point, every delegate will count. Should the Florida delegation actually be seated at a brokered convention, low young-voter turnout today would be bad news for Obama in August. He needs every young voter possible to go to the polls to cut into Clinton's delegate count.

Many speculate on the democratic value of the caucus system because it requires people to be available at a specific time where in a primary you have all day long to vote. Thus the Iowa Caucus being held in the eventing and the upcoming Nevada primary being held on a Saturday.

A recent post on MyDD explains differences in the two systems and some of the important details for the Nevada Caucus:

A series of "at-large" precincts are scheduled to be held near the Strip properties for workers who are on their shifts Saturday . However, the last I heard, the companies had not agreed to let workers take extended breaks to participate, and since the shift change is at noon, its not clear whether those coming off will be allowed to leave early or those coming on will be allowed to arrive late on Saturday. (With Culinary now backing Obama and Clinton having support among some management executives, such as MGM/Mirage VP for personnel, there may be some interesting behind-the-scenes tussles as this gets worked out in the next 10 days.)"

The Nevada Sagebrush - the University of Nevada Reno school paper asks its students where they will be on caucus day with the fun cartoon to the right. But both the College Republicans and the Young Democrats have worked hard to inform students what the caucus is all about.

Earlier last semester the YD's hosted a mock caucus - the "mockus" to allow students to ask questions and learn more about how the process works.

"Fashioned in the style of an actual caucus, the “mockus” will allow students to experience the process of a caucus, which Miller said she hopes will dismiss any fears or doubts concerning the official process.

Miller said Jill Derby, chairwoman of the Nevada State Democratic Party, and Nevada Assemblyman David Bobzien, D-Reno, will be speaking and helping out at the mockus.

Jason Fromoltz, president of the Young Democrats state chapter, said students can expect more of these events as part of the statewide launched plan, “Wanna Caucus.” NV Sagebrush

Nevada is quickly becoming high noon to break apart the close scores of Clinton and Obama or give a nudge to Edwards who secured union support early on in the state.

But "according to The Washington Post, candidates have hosted 188 Nevada events compared to 379 in South Carolina. Iowa drew 1,823 events and New Hampshire 942, according to the Post.

“We were hoping to get more but you’re always hoping for more,” said Bryan Bedera, state chairman of the Republican Youth Majority. “I’m a bit surprised the Republican candidates haven’t focused more on Nevada.”

I'm surprised too. You'd think with New York New York Rudy would be there most nights trying to talk about September 11th and do a press conference.

But the Nevada caucus is aimed to be a pretty swanky affair. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid predicted that there will be 100,000 caucus goers in Nevada. (compared to just under 350,000 in Iowa) And with a lower average age in Nevada, some think youth turnout may also ride the wave to high numbers here as well.

"With Nevada being a caucus state, that's going to translate into a higher youth turnout in Nevada," [said A'shanti Fayshel Gholar, who lives in Las Vegas and serves as vice president of the Young Democrats of America.]"

I agree. My prediction is youth turnout will continue to increase - and we'll see great numbers in 18-30 year olds across the state. See more inspiring stats on young Nevada voters at CIRCLE (pdf)