Primary

Well my pre-game analysis was off. Banking on a smaller youth electorate and possible voter suppression at the polls, I predicted that Indiana would have a smaller youth turnout than North Carolina and that Clinton could potentially overtake Obama among some youth demographics (whites, 25 - 29). That turned out to be false.

Whichever way you slice it - share of the electorate or turnout - young voters played a bigger role in Indiana than they did in North Carolina yesterday. Young Hoosiers made up 17% of the total electorate, and, according to the Washington Post, outperformed voters over 65. CIRCLE lowballs the overall youth turnout at about 20%. (That number is a lowball because a lack of exit polling on the Republican side makes it impossible for them to accurately gauge youth turnout in the GOP contest. Without that data, their measurements for overall youth turnout can only come from the Dem side leaving tens to hundreds of thousands of young voters out of the equation).

In North Carolina, young Tarheels made up a smaller 14% of the overall electorate and turned out at a rate of 15% (again, a lowball estimate). In both states, Senator Obama continued to dominate the youthvote, pulling in a 49% margin in North Carolina and a 24% margin in Indiana.

With regard to share of the electorate, young voters in both states underperformed their share of the population (20% in Indiana and 21% in North Carolina), however the overall share likely rose considerably from 2000 and 2004. There are no exit polls from those cycles against which to compare data, but the average youth share of the electorate in 2004 was 9%. Going by that indicator, young voters' increased their share by ~5% in NC and 8% in Indiana. Not shabby.

According to reports, there was some voter suppression in Indiana, particularly among students attending private universities, however the numbers may be lower than anticipated. Groups like the Student PIRGs are still working on the issue and I'll post updates if/when I get them.

Most interesting to me was the racial breakdown of the youth vote in both states. In North Carolina, Sen. Clinton killed Sen. Obama among white voters overall, but she lot to Obama among White voters aged 17 - 29 57 - 41%. The results were similar in Indiana. Obama lost white voters overall, but won young white voters 55 - 45%. This was a reversal of the results in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Obama lost the white youth vote to Sen. Clinton 52 - 48%.

People say that Obama's "post racial" message is a fantasy when one looks at how the demographics break down, but that is a misinterpretation. Obama is not going to change the racial views and habits of older voters. No candidate could do that. Such change takes time. It is the work of generational shifts. That post-racial message is most apparent among younger voters, who display far less polarization on the issue and are far more likely to cross racial lines in casting their ballots.

From a press release I just received from Student PIRG:

Student PIRG New Voters Project staff stationed at polling locations near Indiana campuses today are beginning to hear from young voters turned away at the polls for a failure to meet voter identification laws upheld by the Supreme Court last week. The law, which requires voters to possess in-state or federal identification, such as an Indiana Driver’s License or federal passport, has been widely criticized for creating additional voting barriers. Three incidents of student voters turned away from the polls documented by Student PIRG staff in past two hours are included below. To contact profiled voters, please contact Sujatha Jahagirdar at (323) 309 6120.

19-year old Angela Hiss, a sophomore and computer science major at the University of Notre Dame, was turned away from the polls this afternoon as she attempted to vote in her first election. After arriving at her polling location, she presented several forms of identification - her school ID, a piece of mail that showed her campus address and an Illinois driver’s license – but was misinformed that she could not vote because she could not show in-state ID. Poll-workers, according to Hiss, also did not advise her that she could cast a provisional ballot, as required by state and federal law. Instead, they suggested visiting local Department of Motor Vehicles to obtain the in-state identification required by Indiana’s newly-upheld law, an endeavor that could take hours, she explained. Furthermore, while the law allows her ten days to obtain the required ID from the DMV, Hiss’s travel plans will not give her time. As a result, she said, she will not be able to vote in the primary.

19-year old Allyson Miller, a sophomore at the University of Notre Dame and volunteer at a local children’s clinic was similarly turned away from the polls today. An Indiana resident since the age of five, Miller left her driver’s license in her dorm room, and arrived straight from class at the polls with her school ID and registration confirmation papers from the County Registrar. Upon arriving, however, poll-workers did not allow her to vote without a state-issued ID. “I plan to come back because voting is a big deal to me,” said Miller, “but it’s a huge inconvenience, especially with a final tomorrow.”

19-year old Becky Jenkins, a sophomore and member of the tennis team at Butler University was also unable to vote in her first election today. “I didn’t know that I had to have an Indiana ID,” she said after she was turned away from the polls for attempting to cast her ballot using a driver’s licenses issued by the State of Illinois. When asked if she would instead cast a provisional ballot, Jenkins also said her travel plans wouldn’t allow her to.

I'll have my Indiana and North Carolina "preview" post up later this afternoon, but I wanted to post a few other quick items first, and remind all the Hoosiers and Tarheels to get to the polls.

If you are voting today and encounter any difficulties, remember that it is always your right to cast a provisional ballot, and put this number into your cellphone. Folks on the other end will help you out:

Credit where due to the Oregon Bus Project for my inspirational blog title. And now for the news:

• America's best high school newspaper gives young voters front-page treatment. -USA Today
• Wonkette has a humorous take on today's voting. -Wonkette
• Ben Adler examines how the new Photo ID law could disenfranchise black voters in Indiana today. -The Politico
• What role will early voting and exams play in determining youth turnout today? -Wall Street Journal
• Matthew Segal, founder of SAVE, gets some media spotlight in this profile piece. -The Politico
• Bob Herbert notes that McCain is doing the troops dirty in his column today. -New York Times

CIRCLE has crunched what numbers they could and here are the results from yesterday's primary:

There are a boatload of caveats that come with these stats. First, looking at the turnout number (14%), it needs to be noted that this is a low-ball number. CIRCLE doesn't just calculate the turnout within the Democratic Primary, they calculate it for the entire electorate. Last night there were no exit polls for the Republican primary, making it impossible for CIRCLE to crunch the data on that side of the aisle. So the 14% comes purely from Democratic turnout, but it's representative of the entire electorate. If CIRCLE were able to add in data from the Republican turnout, that number would surely rise.

Second, because there were no exit polls at all done in Pennsylvania in 2000 or 2004, we have no data against which to compare these numbers. We can, however, make a few very good guestimates.

What we do know is that turnout doubled in Pennsylvania last night, and that in 2004, the average youth "share of the electorate" was 9%. So in a year in which turnout doubled overall, young people gained a 3% greater share of all voters than they did in 2004. So youth turnout yesterday was likely more than double what it was in 2004.

As per usual, youth turnout also went heavily for Senator Obama. According to CNN Exit polling, 18 - 24 year olds broke for Obama 66 - 34%. Among 25 - 29 year olds the race narrowed, though Obama still carried the cohort 55 - 45%.

As I noted earlier in the week, Ohio and Pennsylvania are very demographically similar states. If Obama was to win or be competitive tonight, he needed youth to turnout be a greater share of the electorate in PA than it was in OH. That didn't happen. In Ohio, the youth share of the electorate was 3 percentage points higher, at 15% (pdf). There were likely a number of factors that kept youth turnout down.

There have been some reports of problems at the polling place, but a greater problem was likely the fact that many students - who have made up a disproportionately high number of young voters this cycle - missed the registration deadline, which bumped up against spring break, or they voted absentee in their home state during the previous contests. There is also the matter of brain-drain. Pennsylvania is one of the oldest states in the country, in no small part due to the fact that young college graduates leave the state to find work elsewhere. In other states, college-educated young voters have played a large role in boosting youth turnout.

While it's great news for Democrats, the Obama campaign, and youth activists that, in spite of those hurdles mentioned above, young voters turned out yesterday in greater numbers than every before, there was still room for growth. Young voters in PA made up 21% of the eligible electorate, so young people still did not vote in proportion to their share of the population. There was a 9% gap between what happened, and what was possible. Look at previous contests and you will see that this gap has occurred time and again this primary season. We've seen big gains - double, triple, even quadruple turnout - in every single state, but with the notable exceptions of Iowa and New Hampshire, these numbers have lagged behind young voters' share of the population.

Why is that so?

In Iowa and New Hampshire, which saw the largest share of the electorate and the largest turnout rate, respectively, among young people, youth organizers were moving full-steam ahead. Every 501c3, c4, and 527 was on the ground working to turn out young people. This has not been the case in the rest of the primary contests and caucuses. Progressive youth orgs just don't have the budget to run full youth campaigns during the primary season and no one thought this contest would go past February 5th. We were all caught unprepared for this and the youth vote in the remaining states is not turning out as much as it could be as a consequence.

There's a strong argument to be made here that the Obama campaign, for all the incredible work that it has done in energizing young people, needs help. It can't turn out the youth vote to the greatest degree possible on its own. It will need the support of outside youth organizations like YDA, The League, Young Voter PAC and more. If Obama donors who are maxed-out want to continue to help his candidacy, they could do a lot worse than directing some funds to these independent youth organizations that will be on the ground this cycle, and well after the polls close in November.

As I've said in my book and many times in the past, Millennials are a larger generation than the Baby Boom, and research shows that if you can get someone to vote for a party in their first three major elections, you can lock in their partisanship for life. Getting these young voters out now is about more than the Obama campaign. It's about building partisan loyalty and securing a progressive majority for the next 40 - 50 years. That's a worthwhile longterm investment.

Here's what I'm hearing:

Temporarily bumped as results come in - Mike.

Update III: That's all folks. Clinton wins. We'll have to wait and see if it's by the 10 points she needed for a real "victory," or a smaller margin that would cast her candidacy further into doubt among Super Delegates. I'll have a look at the final youth numbers late tonight or early tomorrow as they are available.

Update II: CNN has updated their exit polling. They're now putting youth share at 12% and 60+ share at 33%. That's a little more reasonable. I'll have more as the returns come in and the exit polling solidifies.

Update: CNN is saying 10% youth share and 40% over 60. This strikes me as wrong. If that was what the electorate looked like, it would be a Clinton blowout, but CNN is saying the race is too close to call. On the other hand, maybe students were a much smaller factor in this race, and the state is WAY older due to brain drain to other states. But still it seems weird that the race isn't being called for Hillary with such high senior turnout.
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We're finally here, showdown in Pennsylvania. As during previous primaries, this is your friendly blogosphere open thread for all things related to youth and the primary.

Here's some information for those of you on the ground in Pennsylvania.

Vote Protection

Common Cause is running a vote-protection hotline. If you encounter trouble voting at your polling place call 866-OUR-VOTE and they will assist you. Also, remember that dormitories count as legal residences and you always have the right to cast a provisional ballot should you encounter resistance at your polling place.

Polling Shuttles and Watch Parties
PennPIRG also has a number of events scheduled including watch parties and shuttles to the polls for those on select campuses in the state:

Temple University, Philadelphia

Dorms to Polls Shuttle
All day; Shuttles leaving every 20 minutes from 13th & Montgomery/Johnson & Hardwick Dorms

Bryn Mawr Campus, Bryn Mawr

Campus to Polls Shuttle
All Day, Shuttles leaving every 30 minutes from Main Campus Archway

Non-Partisan Results Watching Party
Marie Salant Neuberger Centennial Campus Center, 8:00 pm

Haverford College, Haverford

Campus to Polls Shuttle
All Day, Shuttles leaving every 30 minutes from Whitehead Campus Center

Non-Partisan Results-Watching Party
Whitehead Campus Center Café, 8:00 pm

If anyone knows of more vote protection programs or local events, add them in the comments.

So here's some more hard numbers courtesy of the Hip Hop Research and Education Fund. Of the 218,923 new voter registration in Pennsylvania since January 2008, 70% of new registrants are between 18 and 35 years of age. I don't know how that compares to previous states and new voter registrations, but it's a good sign nonetheless.

Today, the Hip-Hop Research and Education Fund (HREF) released information garnered from the Pennsylvania State Board of Elections, which verified that the hip-hop generation will make a clear difference in the outcome of the Pennsylvania primary. Dr. Benjamin Chavis, President/CEO of the Hip-Hop Research and Education Fund, stated, “The fact that over 70% of the 218,923 new voters that have registered since January 2008 across the state of Pennsylvania are between the ages of 18-35 years old clearly verifies the power of the young voter who will participate in tomorrow’s Pennsylvania primary and determine its outcome. Based on our on the ground feedback in Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Erie, Chester and throughout the great metropolitan area of Philadelphia, we are certain that, beginning early tomorrow morning, we are all going to witness the largest youth voter turnout in the history of the state. This will happen, to a large extent, because of the enthusiasm and vitality of the hip-hop generation who view the Pennsylvania presidential primary as a once in a life time opportunity to show that young people throughout Pennsylvania do care about the quality of life issues addressed in the campaign. And, more important, hip-hop voters want to make a difference and want to help shape the future of what political change looks like from the perspective of young voters.”

The prediction from HREF comes in the wake of yesterday’s successful mobilization of 7,000 18-35 year olds who attended the “Hip-Hop Team Vote: Turn Up the Vote” Summit at Temple University in Philadelphia, PA.

Updated to more specifically define "non-college" youth.

After a six-week lull, voting in the Democratic Primary picks up again tomorrow, this time in Pennsylvania, where the Obama campaign is looking for a win (or something close to a tie) in order to slam the door on the candidacy of Sen. Clinton, the success of which is looking more and more unlikely with each passing contest and Super Delegate endorsement.

As in all previous states, youth turnout tomorrow will surely rise well above levels from 2000 or 2004. With such high stakes on the line, it may even double or triple. I would love to be able to say that such increased turnout among young voters will be the key to an Obama win, but the deck seems stacked against such a possibility.

On paper, the math would seem to be good. According to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) (pdf), young voters (18 - 29) make up 21% of the eligible electorate in Pennsylvania, or just under 2 million voters. That's about average. Pennsylvania is a big college state, though, and 23% of those young voters are college students, a group which votes in high numbers for Sen. Obama. According to a CBS Newswire poll, PA students support Sen. Obama over Sen. Clinton 71 - 29%.

In the demographically similar state of Ohio, Obama lost to Clinton 54 - 44%. In that contest, young people made up 16% of the Democratic Electorate. Obama will need young voters to make up a much greater share of the electorate tomorrow if he is to overcome Clinton, who has typically held the lead in polling results.

But here's the rub. This campaign was supposed to be over on Super Tuesday. No one thought the two Democratic candidates would still be duking it out in March, let alone April. This has consequences.

As Ben Adler reported in the Politico, the Obama campaign didn't begin voter registration efforts on campuses until late February, and once they did, those efforts ran smack into one of the hazards of student organizing: spring break. During the final weeks of voter registration, most students were away on a beach or at home with their family. Mix in the fact that many students, thinking the contest would never get this far, decided to vote absentee in their home states, and you have a recipe for lower than average student turnout in a state with a higher than average student population.

There is one factor that could change this equation, and that is an increase in turnout from "non-college" youth, or young people with no college experience. As reported by CIRCLE earlier this year, non-college youth, despite comprising a slightly higher percentage of the eligible youth vote, are turning out in far lower numbers than their college-attending and college-educated peers. On Super Tuesday, non-college youth comprised a rather dismal 21% of all young voters (pdf). This, despite the fact that non-college youth make up slightly more than half of the youth population nationwide.

Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns recognize this, and are reaching out to non-college youth, but the work is much harder than engaging students. Non-college youth are not clumped together geographically around a campus, and are thus harder to target. Because many of these "other" young voters are working jobs, in the military, or struggling to start families, they also tend to have very different policy concerns than their college-educated peers, making it a challenge for the campaigns to speak to and engage them.

If Obama can narrow the gap slightly among other constituencies (like white working class men), then a big bump in turnout among these non-college youth could turn the youth vote into a decisive factor in tomorrow's election. This is a long shot, but not outside the realm of possibility as non-college youth have received special attention in Pennsylvania not only from the campaigns but from outside organizations as well.

In the last year - and in particular the last six weeks - Russell Simmon's nonprofit, the Hip Hop Summit Action Network - has been on the ground targeting under-served communities and communities of color, to educate, register, and get young people out to vote. Working in partnership with PowerPAC and the NAACP, the group claims to have registered 120,000 young Pennsylvanians since January.

Tomorrow will be the test of the effectiveness of those efforts. If non-college youth turnout in greater numbers than they have in previous contests, then Obama just might pull this off, or at least keep it close enough to deny Clinton the momentum she needs to continue. If not, we're headed to North Carolina, Indiana, and maybe all the way to the convention.

I'm in San Francisco today, running on about 4 hours of sleep and the time change is starting to get to me. I'll be at Cody's in Berkeley tonight to give a brief talk and Q&A about my book. Hopefully I'll be coherent.

Via CIRCLE, the youth turnout trends we've seen since the primaries began continued yesterday in Mississippi, where the youth turnout more than tripled. In 2000, the turnout rate for young voters was a meager 4%. Yesterday it climbed to 14%. Young people made up 13% of all voters in Mississippi.

As we've seen in the past, young voters overwhelmingly participated in the Democratic Primary by a greater than 4 -1 margin. 57,161 young people voted in the Democratic Primary, up from just 6,202 in 2000, and they were 14% of the Democratic electorate. On the Republican side, the GOP also saw an increase in youth turnout, though a far less significant one. 13,512 18 - 29 year olds voted in the GOP primary, up from 9,198. They were just 10% of the Republican electorate. The disparity here between Dems and Republican turnout is somewhat greater than usual, but that is likely due to the fact that the GOP nomination is now locked up by Sen. McCain.

Looking deeper into the Democratic numbers, there are few surprises. Young people chose Sen. Obama 73 - 25 percent. This margin was basically unchanged among both the older and younger cohorts of 18 - 29 year olds. There are no data for white or latino youth, but among black youth - who constituted a majority of young voters in the state - Sen. Obama's margin was even greater at 90 - 10 percent.

In short - more of the same . . . we're really just waiting to add up the numbers and see who's got what. I do hold out some hope that Pennsylvania will give us real movement towards one candidate or the other, as well as for a youth turnout on par with that from Iowa and New Hampshire, which are still standouts for youth participation. We've got 6 weeks before PA goes to the polls. That's a lot of time to do the kind of face-to-face campaigning that happened in the early states.

So here's a question. If Florida and/or Michigan hold new contests for the Democratic nomination, will those contests take into consideration the special needs and circumstances of young voters?

For instance, if Florida were to send out mail-in ballots as their chosen method for a re-vote, how would those ballots be distributed? Young people move frequently - and many may even move between now and June, when most colleges and universities let out for the summer. As such, address information in the voter file will likely be inaccurate and could result in tens of thousands of students being disenfranchised. Some of those students may not even reside in the state over the summer, but they will have missed their chance to vote in the state where their parents live.

The mobility of young people will also be a problem should the states opt for a caucus process or a new primary with physical polling locations. Thousands or tens of thousands of young people may be away on vacation or living elsewhere for the summer. That could require long drives, hotel stays, or even more expensive plane rides if they wish to exercise their right to vote. That's not acceptable.

The details of these new contests (if they happen at all) are still being worked out, but the campaigns, the DNC, and the state parties should do all in their power to make sure that any solution does not overly burden and disenfranchise younger voters.