Pennsylvania

• Will Ralph Nader poach youth votes from the Democrats this year? - Chronicle of Higher Education
• Will John McCain poach youth votes from the Democrats this year? - The Politico
• Kat Barr from Rock the Vote interviews me and reviews Youth to Power. - WireTap
• Tim Fernholz has a tough but fair review of Youth to Power. - Campus Progress
• 17 year old Pennsylvanians are fighting for the right to cast primary ballots if they will be 18 by election day. - Fair Vote
• Obama hits McCain for failing to support the Webb GI Bill. - TPM Election Central
• Bob Herbert gets hip to the economic plight of Millennials - New York Times
• Former candidate George McGovern has an interesting solution to bring the primaries to an amicable end. - New York Times
• Along a number of indicators, the civic engagement gap between college and non-college youth has widened since the 1970s. - Peter Levine
• Hip Hop youth organizing is going local and deeper in 2008. - Boston Globe

CIRCLE has crunched what numbers they could and here are the results from yesterday's primary:

There are a boatload of caveats that come with these stats. First, looking at the turnout number (14%), it needs to be noted that this is a low-ball number. CIRCLE doesn't just calculate the turnout within the Democratic Primary, they calculate it for the entire electorate. Last night there were no exit polls for the Republican primary, making it impossible for CIRCLE to crunch the data on that side of the aisle. So the 14% comes purely from Democratic turnout, but it's representative of the entire electorate. If CIRCLE were able to add in data from the Republican turnout, that number would surely rise.

Second, because there were no exit polls at all done in Pennsylvania in 2000 or 2004, we have no data against which to compare these numbers. We can, however, make a few very good guestimates.

What we do know is that turnout doubled in Pennsylvania last night, and that in 2004, the average youth "share of the electorate" was 9%. So in a year in which turnout doubled overall, young people gained a 3% greater share of all voters than they did in 2004. So youth turnout yesterday was likely more than double what it was in 2004.

As per usual, youth turnout also went heavily for Senator Obama. According to CNN Exit polling, 18 - 24 year olds broke for Obama 66 - 34%. Among 25 - 29 year olds the race narrowed, though Obama still carried the cohort 55 - 45%.

As I noted earlier in the week, Ohio and Pennsylvania are very demographically similar states. If Obama was to win or be competitive tonight, he needed youth to turnout be a greater share of the electorate in PA than it was in OH. That didn't happen. In Ohio, the youth share of the electorate was 3 percentage points higher, at 15% (pdf). There were likely a number of factors that kept youth turnout down.

There have been some reports of problems at the polling place, but a greater problem was likely the fact that many students - who have made up a disproportionately high number of young voters this cycle - missed the registration deadline, which bumped up against spring break, or they voted absentee in their home state during the previous contests. There is also the matter of brain-drain. Pennsylvania is one of the oldest states in the country, in no small part due to the fact that young college graduates leave the state to find work elsewhere. In other states, college-educated young voters have played a large role in boosting youth turnout.

While it's great news for Democrats, the Obama campaign, and youth activists that, in spite of those hurdles mentioned above, young voters turned out yesterday in greater numbers than every before, there was still room for growth. Young voters in PA made up 21% of the eligible electorate, so young people still did not vote in proportion to their share of the population. There was a 9% gap between what happened, and what was possible. Look at previous contests and you will see that this gap has occurred time and again this primary season. We've seen big gains - double, triple, even quadruple turnout - in every single state, but with the notable exceptions of Iowa and New Hampshire, these numbers have lagged behind young voters' share of the population.

Why is that so?

In Iowa and New Hampshire, which saw the largest share of the electorate and the largest turnout rate, respectively, among young people, youth organizers were moving full-steam ahead. Every 501c3, c4, and 527 was on the ground working to turn out young people. This has not been the case in the rest of the primary contests and caucuses. Progressive youth orgs just don't have the budget to run full youth campaigns during the primary season and no one thought this contest would go past February 5th. We were all caught unprepared for this and the youth vote in the remaining states is not turning out as much as it could be as a consequence.

There's a strong argument to be made here that the Obama campaign, for all the incredible work that it has done in energizing young people, needs help. It can't turn out the youth vote to the greatest degree possible on its own. It will need the support of outside youth organizations like YDA, The League, Young Voter PAC and more. If Obama donors who are maxed-out want to continue to help his candidacy, they could do a lot worse than directing some funds to these independent youth organizations that will be on the ground this cycle, and well after the polls close in November.

As I've said in my book and many times in the past, Millennials are a larger generation than the Baby Boom, and research shows that if you can get someone to vote for a party in their first three major elections, you can lock in their partisanship for life. Getting these young voters out now is about more than the Obama campaign. It's about building partisan loyalty and securing a progressive majority for the next 40 - 50 years. That's a worthwhile longterm investment.

Here's what I'm hearing:

Temporarily bumped as results come in - Mike.

Update III: That's all folks. Clinton wins. We'll have to wait and see if it's by the 10 points she needed for a real "victory," or a smaller margin that would cast her candidacy further into doubt among Super Delegates. I'll have a look at the final youth numbers late tonight or early tomorrow as they are available.

Update II: CNN has updated their exit polling. They're now putting youth share at 12% and 60+ share at 33%. That's a little more reasonable. I'll have more as the returns come in and the exit polling solidifies.

Update: CNN is saying 10% youth share and 40% over 60. This strikes me as wrong. If that was what the electorate looked like, it would be a Clinton blowout, but CNN is saying the race is too close to call. On the other hand, maybe students were a much smaller factor in this race, and the state is WAY older due to brain drain to other states. But still it seems weird that the race isn't being called for Hillary with such high senior turnout.
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We're finally here, showdown in Pennsylvania. As during previous primaries, this is your friendly blogosphere open thread for all things related to youth and the primary.

Here's some information for those of you on the ground in Pennsylvania.

Vote Protection

Common Cause is running a vote-protection hotline. If you encounter trouble voting at your polling place call 866-OUR-VOTE and they will assist you. Also, remember that dormitories count as legal residences and you always have the right to cast a provisional ballot should you encounter resistance at your polling place.

Polling Shuttles and Watch Parties
PennPIRG also has a number of events scheduled including watch parties and shuttles to the polls for those on select campuses in the state:

Temple University, Philadelphia

Dorms to Polls Shuttle
All day; Shuttles leaving every 20 minutes from 13th & Montgomery/Johnson & Hardwick Dorms

Bryn Mawr Campus, Bryn Mawr

Campus to Polls Shuttle
All Day, Shuttles leaving every 30 minutes from Main Campus Archway

Non-Partisan Results Watching Party
Marie Salant Neuberger Centennial Campus Center, 8:00 pm

Haverford College, Haverford

Campus to Polls Shuttle
All Day, Shuttles leaving every 30 minutes from Whitehead Campus Center

Non-Partisan Results-Watching Party
Whitehead Campus Center Café, 8:00 pm

If anyone knows of more vote protection programs or local events, add them in the comments.

So here's some more hard numbers courtesy of the Hip Hop Research and Education Fund. Of the 218,923 new voter registration in Pennsylvania since January 2008, 70% of new registrants are between 18 and 35 years of age. I don't know how that compares to previous states and new voter registrations, but it's a good sign nonetheless.

Today, the Hip-Hop Research and Education Fund (HREF) released information garnered from the Pennsylvania State Board of Elections, which verified that the hip-hop generation will make a clear difference in the outcome of the Pennsylvania primary. Dr. Benjamin Chavis, President/CEO of the Hip-Hop Research and Education Fund, stated, “The fact that over 70% of the 218,923 new voters that have registered since January 2008 across the state of Pennsylvania are between the ages of 18-35 years old clearly verifies the power of the young voter who will participate in tomorrow’s Pennsylvania primary and determine its outcome. Based on our on the ground feedback in Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Erie, Chester and throughout the great metropolitan area of Philadelphia, we are certain that, beginning early tomorrow morning, we are all going to witness the largest youth voter turnout in the history of the state. This will happen, to a large extent, because of the enthusiasm and vitality of the hip-hop generation who view the Pennsylvania presidential primary as a once in a life time opportunity to show that young people throughout Pennsylvania do care about the quality of life issues addressed in the campaign. And, more important, hip-hop voters want to make a difference and want to help shape the future of what political change looks like from the perspective of young voters.”

The prediction from HREF comes in the wake of yesterday’s successful mobilization of 7,000 18-35 year olds who attended the “Hip-Hop Team Vote: Turn Up the Vote” Summit at Temple University in Philadelphia, PA.

Updated to more specifically define "non-college" youth.

After a six-week lull, voting in the Democratic Primary picks up again tomorrow, this time in Pennsylvania, where the Obama campaign is looking for a win (or something close to a tie) in order to slam the door on the candidacy of Sen. Clinton, the success of which is looking more and more unlikely with each passing contest and Super Delegate endorsement.

As in all previous states, youth turnout tomorrow will surely rise well above levels from 2000 or 2004. With such high stakes on the line, it may even double or triple. I would love to be able to say that such increased turnout among young voters will be the key to an Obama win, but the deck seems stacked against such a possibility.

On paper, the math would seem to be good. According to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) (pdf), young voters (18 - 29) make up 21% of the eligible electorate in Pennsylvania, or just under 2 million voters. That's about average. Pennsylvania is a big college state, though, and 23% of those young voters are college students, a group which votes in high numbers for Sen. Obama. According to a CBS Newswire poll, PA students support Sen. Obama over Sen. Clinton 71 - 29%.

In the demographically similar state of Ohio, Obama lost to Clinton 54 - 44%. In that contest, young people made up 16% of the Democratic Electorate. Obama will need young voters to make up a much greater share of the electorate tomorrow if he is to overcome Clinton, who has typically held the lead in polling results.

But here's the rub. This campaign was supposed to be over on Super Tuesday. No one thought the two Democratic candidates would still be duking it out in March, let alone April. This has consequences.

As Ben Adler reported in the Politico, the Obama campaign didn't begin voter registration efforts on campuses until late February, and once they did, those efforts ran smack into one of the hazards of student organizing: spring break. During the final weeks of voter registration, most students were away on a beach or at home with their family. Mix in the fact that many students, thinking the contest would never get this far, decided to vote absentee in their home states, and you have a recipe for lower than average student turnout in a state with a higher than average student population.

There is one factor that could change this equation, and that is an increase in turnout from "non-college" youth, or young people with no college experience. As reported by CIRCLE earlier this year, non-college youth, despite comprising a slightly higher percentage of the eligible youth vote, are turning out in far lower numbers than their college-attending and college-educated peers. On Super Tuesday, non-college youth comprised a rather dismal 21% of all young voters (pdf). This, despite the fact that non-college youth make up slightly more than half of the youth population nationwide.

Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns recognize this, and are reaching out to non-college youth, but the work is much harder than engaging students. Non-college youth are not clumped together geographically around a campus, and are thus harder to target. Because many of these "other" young voters are working jobs, in the military, or struggling to start families, they also tend to have very different policy concerns than their college-educated peers, making it a challenge for the campaigns to speak to and engage them.

If Obama can narrow the gap slightly among other constituencies (like white working class men), then a big bump in turnout among these non-college youth could turn the youth vote into a decisive factor in tomorrow's election. This is a long shot, but not outside the realm of possibility as non-college youth have received special attention in Pennsylvania not only from the campaigns but from outside organizations as well.

In the last year - and in particular the last six weeks - Russell Simmon's nonprofit, the Hip Hop Summit Action Network - has been on the ground targeting under-served communities and communities of color, to educate, register, and get young people out to vote. Working in partnership with PowerPAC and the NAACP, the group claims to have registered 120,000 young Pennsylvanians since January.

Tomorrow will be the test of the effectiveness of those efforts. If non-college youth turnout in greater numbers than they have in previous contests, then Obama just might pull this off, or at least keep it close enough to deny Clinton the momentum she needs to continue. If not, we're headed to North Carolina, Indiana, and maybe all the way to the convention.

• CBS Poll: Obama Way Ahead Among College Students - Cliff Schecter
• Other Youth Vote is Harder to Mobilize - Christian Science Monitor
• Students, Young Workers Have Different Priorities - The Politico
• Push for Youth Vote Stirs Activism on Campuses - Philly.com
• Barack Obama is Rocking the Youth Vote - Search Engine Watch
• Primary Lures Those Too Young to Vote - New York Times
• John McCain is Older Than FM Radio - Youngerthanmccain.com
• There will be a Hip Hop Summit in Philadelphia tomorrow - NAACP
• Trio in College May Hold Key Votes for Democrats - Wall Street Journal
• Youth Voter Participation Surges - But So Do Suppression Attempts - Op Ed News
• Youth Vote To Play Active Role in Election Year - Indiana Statesman

• Can Youth Swing Pennsylvania?
• Young Voters Help Start Political Phenomenon
• Marvin Krislov, the President of Oberlin College, talks about barriers that young people - particularly college students - face in voting, and how a simple action on the part of universities can help lower those barriers: Laying the Foundation for Voting
• Keli Goff appeared on Fire Dog Lake's book salon today to talk about her new book: Party Crashing: How the Hip Hop Generation Declared Political Independence. It's next on my book list.

Clinton may be dead in the water, but the contest goes on, notably in Pennsylvania, where voter registration closes on Monday and the campaigns and outside groups are working to get more young voters on the rolls.

The Obama campaign is working to activate it's young supporters via a mix of broadcast and field strategies. The campaign is running ads targeted at young supporters in the state to raise awareness about the registration deadline (tomorrow), and they've activated their on the ground supporters as well, notably with this video the campaign sent out earlier in the week:

On the non-profit side, Russell Simmon's Hip Hop Summit Action Network, which has done a lot of work in Philadelphia in recent years, is trying to register 15 - 20,000 young voters before the deadline.

I have not been able to talk to anyone at HSAN about their campaign, but from what I can tell it seems to consist solely of awareness raising PSAs run on local radio and featuring celebs such as Will Smith, Jay-Z, Wyclef and others. Call me cynical, but it's hard to see how radio ads = voter registrations (let along 20 thousand) without an accompanying field component. That field component may well be there, though all accounts of their work thus far make no mention of on-the-ground work.

Is all of this going to add up to an Obama win on April 22nd? Most certainly not, judging by current polls. But it could put a whole lot of new young voters on the rolls in PA, ensuring that the state deserves it's promotion/demotion from crucial swing state to solid "blue" state.