North Carolina

Joe's got a great video up about Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" - in which he (Rush) encourages Republicans to eff with the Democratic primaries. He also has a good summation of the point I made earlier today about the supposed "race divide" between the Democratic candidates and how that plays out at the generational level.

Well my pre-game analysis was off. Banking on a smaller youth electorate and possible voter suppression at the polls, I predicted that Indiana would have a smaller youth turnout than North Carolina and that Clinton could potentially overtake Obama among some youth demographics (whites, 25 - 29). That turned out to be false.

Whichever way you slice it - share of the electorate or turnout - young voters played a bigger role in Indiana than they did in North Carolina yesterday. Young Hoosiers made up 17% of the total electorate, and, according to the Washington Post, outperformed voters over 65. CIRCLE lowballs the overall youth turnout at about 20%. (That number is a lowball because a lack of exit polling on the Republican side makes it impossible for them to accurately gauge youth turnout in the GOP contest. Without that data, their measurements for overall youth turnout can only come from the Dem side leaving tens to hundreds of thousands of young voters out of the equation).

In North Carolina, young Tarheels made up a smaller 14% of the overall electorate and turned out at a rate of 15% (again, a lowball estimate). In both states, Senator Obama continued to dominate the youthvote, pulling in a 49% margin in North Carolina and a 24% margin in Indiana.

With regard to share of the electorate, young voters in both states underperformed their share of the population (20% in Indiana and 21% in North Carolina), however the overall share likely rose considerably from 2000 and 2004. There are no exit polls from those cycles against which to compare data, but the average youth share of the electorate in 2004 was 9%. Going by that indicator, young voters' increased their share by ~5% in NC and 8% in Indiana. Not shabby.

According to reports, there was some voter suppression in Indiana, particularly among students attending private universities, however the numbers may be lower than anticipated. Groups like the Student PIRGs are still working on the issue and I'll post updates if/when I get them.

Most interesting to me was the racial breakdown of the youth vote in both states. In North Carolina, Sen. Clinton killed Sen. Obama among white voters overall, but she lot to Obama among White voters aged 17 - 29 57 - 41%. The results were similar in Indiana. Obama lost white voters overall, but won young white voters 55 - 45%. This was a reversal of the results in Pennsylvania, where Sen. Obama lost the white youth vote to Sen. Clinton 52 - 48%.

People say that Obama's "post racial" message is a fantasy when one looks at how the demographics break down, but that is a misinterpretation. Obama is not going to change the racial views and habits of older voters. No candidate could do that. Such change takes time. It is the work of generational shifts. That post-racial message is most apparent among younger voters, who display far less polarization on the issue and are far more likely to cross racial lines in casting their ballots.

Sorry this posted so late. Crazy day. - Mike

We're just a few hours away from the polls closing in North Carolina and Indiana and I wanted to put down some thoughts on the youth vote and what we might expect.

North Carolina
The demographics of the state heavily favor Obama. According to CIRCLE, young voters make up 21% of the eligible electorate in the state. Of that youth population, 25% are black/non-hispanic and 20% are college students, both demographics that heavily favor the Senator.

There are no exit polls from the 2004 primary (there were none according to Roper), so it will be difficult to make direct comparisons between today's vote and past primaries. The state has a form of early voting, and there weren't many indications that young people in the state would be disenfranchised. I'm looking for NC to have the higher youth turnout and share of the electorate this evening, and to break heavily for Sen. Obama among both the 18 - 24 and 25 - 29 demographics..

Indiana
Indiana is a distinctly different beast. According to CIRCLE, young voters make up 20% of the eligible electorate, but that population is much whiter and less likely to be located on a campus. Only 12% of those voters are black/non-hispanic, and 17% are current students. Less of the state's youth population is likely to have attended college or received a degree. This makes the state's young voters far more friendly to Clinton than North Carolina's.

Compounding these problems for Obama in Indiana is the recent photo-ID law upheld by the Supreme Court. The law requires that all voters have valid, state-issued photo ID. This places a heavy burden on students and young voters who move frequently and may not have valid driver's licenses. According to the Student PIRGs, this has already resulted in some students being turned away at the polls.

Because of this confluence of law and demographic factors, I'm looking for youth turnout to be low in Indiana. Obama will likely still carry the demographic, but it will be by a much smaller margin and the state affords Clinton the opportunity to claim a victory among the older, 25 - 29 year old cohort as she did in New Hampshire and a few other states.

I'll have my Indiana and North Carolina "preview" post up later this afternoon, but I wanted to post a few other quick items first, and remind all the Hoosiers and Tarheels to get to the polls.

If you are voting today and encounter any difficulties, remember that it is always your right to cast a provisional ballot, and put this number into your cellphone. Folks on the other end will help you out:

Credit where due to the Oregon Bus Project for my inspirational blog title. And now for the news:

• America's best high school newspaper gives young voters front-page treatment. -USA Today
• Wonkette has a humorous take on today's voting. -Wonkette
• Ben Adler examines how the new Photo ID law could disenfranchise black voters in Indiana today. -The Politico
• What role will early voting and exams play in determining youth turnout today? -Wall Street Journal
• Matthew Segal, founder of SAVE, gets some media spotlight in this profile piece. -The Politico
• Bob Herbert notes that McCain is doing the troops dirty in his column today. -New York Times

Youthy things left on the wayside of the information superhighway:

• Rock the Vote reminds us that early voting has started in Indiana and North Carolina. -Rock the Vote
• Conservatives are attempting a takeover at Dartmouth College. - Daily Kos
• Why the Democrats need all young voters, college and non-college, if they are to win in November. -The Nation
• Students for a New American Politics - a great organization that fundraises to place young activists on campaigns - is holding a fundraiser. -Daily Gotham
• Bush is pushing for legislation that will allow the government to buy-up student loans an ensure that loans will continue to be available to students. The article I read is vague, but it sounds like this might be an end run to bulk up the lender-friendly FFEL (Family Federal Education Loan Program) at the expense of the more efficient Direct Loan Program. -The Politico
• Just what is it that kids do on social networks? Danah Boyd Explains in her lecture "Teen Socialization Practices in Networked Publics." -Apophenia
• Adam B has much more on the Indiana voter ID ruling by the Supreme Court. -Daily Kos

The DNC Youth Council has announced three more trainings for the state delegate election process. If you don't want to get cut, you might want to get on this call:

Subject: Upcoming DNC Youth Council Delegate Selection Trainings

Friends and Colleagues--

One of the goals of the DNC's Youth Council is to increase the number of young delegates (those under 36) to the Democratic National Convention. We have already held several conference call trainings on the process to be a delegate. The trainings were extremely successful and we are eager to get underway with our next round of calls.

Below one will find a listing of some of our upcoming calls. Please spread the word to as many people as possible about these. On each call we will be joined by a member of that respective state's party to go over the process to be a Congressional District, PLEO, or At-Large delegate to the Democratic National Convention. In addition to the specific training, we will be sure to provide information on how to get more involved with the State Party and other youth organizations. (If you or your organization have specific information you would like to have mentioned, please email me and let me know as soon as possible.)

The upcoming calls are:

Vermont - Thursday, April 17 at 7pm EST

Phone: 866-810-8093
Code: 822-976-6817

North Carolina - Tuesday, April 22nd at 6pm EST
Phone: 605-475-6006
Code: 792994

Texas - Monday, April 28 at 7pm EST
Phone: 605-475-6300
Code: 85383