millennial generation

According to a US News and World Report Wednesday young voters are one of the five voting groups to watch this election cycle.

"The only problem is that voting—or failing to vote—has always been the issue when it comes to youth. Since 1972, the first election in which 18-to-20-year-olds were eligible to vote, turnout among the under-30 crowd has steadily declined. In 2004, this trend seemed to turn around as the number of young voters increased. Get-out-the-vote organizations touted the fact that there were 4.2 million more voters under 30 than there were in 2000.

This year, there's perhaps even more hype surrounding the youth vote, and it could actually be warranted. Primary turnout among young people doubled, tripled, and even quadrupled in many states, compared with primaries in 2000 and 2004, according to Rock the Vote, a youth-oriented voter registration group that often partners with entertainment companies. In some communities, more young voters are registering, and anecdotal reports suggest more young people are volunteering for the campaigns as well. "You don't write off anyone," says Matt Segal, the executive director of SAVE, who encourages both of the candidates to ramp up their efforts to attract the youth vote. "Young voters are susceptible to the politicians who reach out to them." A swing state like Wisconsin might go to Obama if young people turn out in large numbers, as some suggest they will. If they're right, that really would be a change."

Other groups, not surprisingly include women, African Americans, Hispanics, and Evangelicals. All groups we like to talk about here on FM because all of them can also fall within the group of young people.

Women are always targets, call them soccer moms, security moms, or the recent revelation about single women, women are more than half of the population. A good friend said it best, "Piss off a man, he just ain't gonna vote for you. But you piss off a women not only is she not gonna vote for ya, her husband ain't, her kids ain't, her friends ain't, and everyone at the beauty shop sure as hell ain't. Women are powerful."

Ok, antidotes aside, African Americans are energized by issues and certainly by the fact that the first African American in the general election is on the ballot. AA's also more inclined to be younger.

Average age of Latinos is also younger and there is a pretty good broadband penetration rate for their demographic.

Evangelicals, tend to be older, of course, but young evangelicals are a voting bloc as we've seen that tend to be more interested in Obama's message. His campaign is ready to go after them, and while the whole of the demographic might not go for him, young evangelicals might.

So, of these 5 demographics I think its fair to say that 4 of the 5 include young people or include youth elements to them. And with young evangelicals I'd say that makes up 4.5 of the top 5 voting groups to watch that have a youth component to them.

See... I told you...

Since I last posted about Young Evangelicals becoming a new targeting group in battleground states FoxNews, who I'm certain reads FM on a regular basis, has picked up the story.

"Three swing states — Ohio, Missouri and Colorado — could tip the scales if religious youth show up the way they have in recent elections, said John Green, director of the Bliss Institute at University of Akron in Ohio.

"These 'battleground states’ are good reflections of the nation as a whole," Green told FOXNews.com. "The youth vote — both religious and non-religious — are likely to show the same patterns at the national level. If they [religious youth] can have an impact nationally, they will have an impact in the battleground states."

But a new poll by the Barna Group shows Obama leading McCain among all faith groups, except for evangelicals.

"Obama maintaining a substantial 43% to 34% lead among those who are likely to vote in November, with 5% selecting minor party candidates. That lead is a decline for Sen. Obama’s since early June, when he led his Republican rival 50% to 35% among likely voters. In the past two months, more voters have gravitated to third-party candidates (5%) and a higher proportion is now undecided (up from 15% to 21%)."

Interestingly enough, the LA Times reports this morning that the two candidates will chill on a stage together at Rick Warren's church in Orange County, CA

"But they will make a brief joint appearance, their first of the campaign, and Warren will interview each separately about the Constitution, poverty, AIDS, human rights and other subjects. . .

Many evangelicals believe that Warren's growing profile, and his willingness to welcome Obama to his pulpit, are evidence that he has emerged as the most pivotal figure in U.S. evangelicalism. . .

The forum with McCain and Obama, he said, is his latest attempt to introduce civility into public discourse, even if it irks some of his fellow evangelicals. Warren faced biting criticism in 2006 when Obama spoke at his church for a global AIDS summit. Last year Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) appeared at another AIDS conference at the church.

Warren has been called perhaps ‘America's most influential pastor,’ an evangelical megastar who leads the nation's fourth-largest church, reaches thousands of ministers through the Internet and crusades against poverty and AIDS. That globe-trotting work -- and his phenomenally successful book, ‘The Purpose Driven Life’ -- have propelled him into the vanguard of a movement that inspires young and socially conscious Christians."

All very interesting.... we're always bringing you the best info here at FM.

Last week during the Teen Choice Awards, DoSomething.Org honored a young community activist (under the age of 25) that aims to change the world. The winner received $100,000 to continue the community project started prior to the award. Finalists were posted on the Teen Choice website and fans voted for their favorite.

"One amazing young person is going to be recognized for their philanthropic efforts and impact on their community and get the rock star treatment they deserve at the show," said Bob Bain, Executive Producer of TEEN CHOICE 2008.

Do Something is a non-partisan non-profit that believes teenagers have the power to make a difference. They leverage communications technologies to enable teens to convert their ideas and energy into positive action. Their site says "We inspire, empower and celebrate a generation of doers."

"We think young people aren’t just tomorrow’s leaders; many young people are doing amazing things right now," said Nancy Lublin, CEO of Do Something, Inc.

And the Winner is.....

The winner this year winner was 19 year old Chad Bullock who has become the leading youth anti-tobacco activist…and he lives right in the middle of tobacco country. He works with politicians, companies, not for profits and other teens. One of his biggest successes was making the Durham Bulls Arena a smoke-free arena.

This is a unique way for an organization as well as a nationally televised event to convey to young people the impact they can have on the world around them. Young people already volunteer in their communities in encouraging numbers according to CIRCLE.

"44% believe that "people working together" can make a great deal of difference in solving local problems" and "45% believe they can make some difference" by volunteering in their community.

Honoring them and encouraging others to also get involved can continue the civic engagement we now see from the Millennial Generation.

As you saw in today's Quick Hits, CBS News has a great story up about McCain's lack of appeal to youth voters.

The article starts with observations of McCain's lack of comfort with technology, the thing that binds most Millennials together. But then it digs deeper into the dissonance that exists between McCain's stances on issues and the increasingly liberal views on the Millennial Generation.

Of course, when it comes to the youth vote in this election, any Republican nominee would begin the race at a significant disadvantage. Young people are clearly skewing to the left this election year, identifying more with the Democratic Party and embracing more liberal positions on so-called wedge issues by sizeable majorities. They've supported more lenient approaches to dealing with illegal immigrants, agreed that all citizens should have healthcare (even if the government has to provide it to those who can't afford it) and supported either same-sex marriage or civil unions for homosexual couples. Meanwhile, John McCain has wavered on immigration, his healthcare plan has been described as “total laissez-faire liberty” and he opposes both same-sex marriage and allowing gay couples to adopt.

I think that many Millennials would forgive John McCain for refining his positions on issues, as Millennials are pragmatic by nature and, in the end, want the best solution, not the purest ideology. But McCain's problem is that he has switched his positions on issues clumsily, such as immigration, Bush's tax cuts, and whether or not he's able to understand the U.S. economy. That would theoretically undermine his ability, in many Millennials' eyes, to offer any expertise at digging this country out of its rut.

So then McCain and the Republicans, understanding this, are forced into a decision. Do they hand the massive Millennial Generation over to the Democrats for good by discouraging their participation in this election, or do they start trying to build a relationship with young people with the remaining time left in order to strengthen it down the road? While they'd be wise to do the latter, it doesn't look good.

Between February 1 and July 31, Obama held thirty-two campaign events in college towns; McCain held three. The McCain campaign has yet to publicly announce an official youth outreach or youth vote campaign director. On the other hand, Obama has hired former Rock the Vote political director Hans Reimer. Not surprisingly, young Republicans have complained about the McCain campaign's poor efforts at the grassroots level and failure to make use of existing networks. "They definitely haven't reached out to the younger generation as strongly as I hoped they would," an organizer for the Young Republicans in South Carolina recently told a local newspaper. "It's a big mistake. You've got to create something that people want to be a part of. I'm just not getting that feeling this go-round." A young conservative political strategist named David All concurred, remarking to the Washington Post that "Republicans are sort of talking down to Gen-Nexters, not bringing them in."

One more thing I found to be interesting.

"Let me just start by saying that it would not be unheard of for a Republican candidate to win the youth vote," says Justin York, a grassroots youth organizer for McCain in Florida and an incoming junior at the University of Central Florida (UCF). York points out that Ronald Reagan, nearly McCain's age in 1984, won the majority of youth voters in his reelection bid and George H.W. Bush, at the age of 64, also captured the majority of youth voters four years later. And if York's organizing efforts in Florida pay off, perhaps McCain can repeat their successes.

Not so fast, Justin. The problem with York's first statement is that he's living in the 1980s. With today's youth, it would be unheard of for a Republican to win the youth vote. Ronald Reagan did enjoy success with Generation X. But Generation X is certainly different than the engaged, institutional, liberal Millennials. Justin also seems to be ignoring the 1990s. In 1992, the youth vote soared, but Bill Clinton was favored by the youth by a 44 percent to 34 percent (Bush) to 22 percent (Perot) margin. In 1996, Clinton again was favored, this time over Dole, by a 53 percent to 34 percent margin. Granted, many 1992 voters did not vote at all in 1996, but even so, the Republicans clearly did not enjoy any appreciation from that demographic.

McCain and the Republicans are treating (and hoping) the Millennials are like Generation X, a generation that, at worst for the Republicans, splits their vote somewhat evenly between the GOP and the Democrats, and is ambivalent about politics. But fortunately for the Democratic Party and our democracy, Millennials are different. They are engaged, they are liberal, and come November 4th, all signs point to them turning out and voting for Democrats in large numbers.

The Tucson Citizen publishes a piece partially misrepresenting activism among Millennials (another instance of someone believing the Internet to be mutually exclusive from interpersonal activism).

Wall Street Journal has an interesting story about Louisiana's efforts to undermine its own brain drain, starting with stringent ethics laws and a focus on developing and implementing innovative ideas.

The LA Times has a great essay by Neal Gabler examining Obama's credentials as a "rock star" versus a "movie star," pointing out that the challenge built into Obama's sudden ascent is getting people to not only dream, but embrace their dreams.

CBS has a piece describing the dilemma the McCain camp faces with youth voters: do they sacrifice future branding efforts with Millennials by discouraging turnout among the demographic this year? Or do they engage this demographic, though it's late, and attempt to build toward the future? The latter doesn't look promising:

Between February 1 and July 31, Obama held thirty-two campaign events in college towns; McCain held three. The McCain campaign has yet to publicly announce an official youth outreach or youth vote campaign director. On the other hand, Obama has hired former Rock the Vote political director Hans Reimer. Not surprisingly, young Republicans have complained about the McCain campaign's poor efforts at the grassroots level and failure to make use of existing networks. "They definitely haven't reached out to the younger generation as strongly as I hoped they would," an organizer for the Young Republicans in South Carolina recently told a local newspaper. "It's a big mistake. You've got to create something that people want to be a part of. I'm just not getting that feeling this go-round." A young conservative political strategist named David All concurred, remarking to the Washington Post that "Republicans are sort of talking down to Gen-Nexters, not bringing them in."

Finally, an Iowa television station has a story about the youngest Republican delegate at this year's convention -- seventeen year old Mike Knopf from Dubuque. He's a pretty smart kid:

"...We've got, don't get me wrong, all these old people and they do a great job and they have for 20,30,40 years but it you want to keep a party strong the key is you have to renew your people."

It’s an Olympic year, so there’s a lot of torch-passing going around these days. But it’s also a watershed year in which the torch is being passed, once again, to a new generation.

Two years ago, when I ran for State Senate and won, I watched a wave of young progressives sweeping across the nation. I was not just watching history happen, I was part of it with all of you.

This year, however, is proving that 2006 was just a prelude to a national movement, a generational shift that makes our nation’s hope for the future incredibly bright. And once again, I’m honored to be a part of history as it happens. This wouldn't be a pivotal year without your work and your involvement, and I wouldn't be here without the support of young people in Oklahoma.

I’m running for U.S. Senate in Oklahoma in part because I’m inspired by these times. A new group of people who have grown up believing that government can be a force for good in people’s lives are working to make sure that it fulfills that mission. We’re changing our nation from the inside out, from the state house to Washington. And the need for well-qualified and hopeful people to serve in the public sphere has never been greater.

We have to shape our own future. If we want to have Medicare and Social Security available when we retire, we must protect it now. If we want to have clean air for our children and energy sources to fill the void left when oil supplies shrink, we must fight for renewable and clean alternatives now. If we want to have quality and affordable health care available for when we, or our children, get sick, we must change the health care system now.

When I’m in the U.S. Senate, I’ll be fighting for all of these issues, as well as protecting our troops and our veterans, keeping our nation’s security strong, spending our tax dollars responsibly, and ensuring a quality education for every child. My opponent, incumbent Sen. Jim Inhofe, has proven to be out of touch with his constituents on these subjects. Being a voice for the people you represent is the basic job of any legislator, and he’s failing to do even that.

I appreciate the opportunity to come on Future Majority and discuss the issues you care about, as well as my U.S. Senate campaign. If you want to find out more about me and about this race, please look at my website, www.andrewforoklahoma.com . I’ll be happy to take your questions below.

So... finally I have video uploaded to YouTube from Netroots Nation.

My post for Rock the Vote is here and includes this video. But below I want to share interviews in their entirety that include everything they have to say. To see all the videos I'm uploading here's the YouTube channel.

There were a lot of things to talk about. Notably the myth that bloggers are young. I knew that, but had never quite seen that in action. There were many of us that were certainly under 30 and more under 40, but such a huge number of them that were older, x-hippies maybe... I think there is an assumption that we are all young and the reality was odd.

The next thing I found moving and a huge compliment was the overwhelming number of candidates that were there to court bloggers. In Kansas, most people (except the Slattery's) haven't discovered technology, and communicating with bloggers is something only few do because some see it as a loss of message control. To have so many candidates, BIG candidates asking for our help with covering their campaign or their issues was a huge compliment. Al Gore telling us that our ability to get a message out and drive traffic to an issue was the ultimate pick-me-up.

Another major plus was that the candidates there seem to all be on board with young voters and recognizing the importance of the youth vote this election. In fact both Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Gov. Howard Dean seemed to have received the same talking points and crafted the same message. Their hope is pined on young people. Pelosi goes so far to say that the impatience of youth is something she values and appreciates. Its an interesting spin from the Thomas Friedman et al's of the world who want to talk about how we want it now... Turns out, sometimes its good to demand things. They also both agree that this is a generational election - and the old vs. new dichotomy is being emphasized.

The best conversation I had with Rep. Pelosi was about technology. (video should be totally uploaded soon, it was still processing) I love young voters, but given my outspoken activism on Let Our Congress Tweet and my obsession with looking at how we can incorporate technology to connect constituents to their members better and more effectively... hearing her perspective on her outreach, how she encourages other members to do it, and her ideas about the Franking Rules were all things I wanted to understand more.

I understand where she's coming from, I really do. The last thing we want is to allow members to campaign on the taxpayers dime... I mean what's next!? Public Financing?!! Steps from anarchy... And I should have been ballsy enough to follow up, but this was the first time I'd met her before... so I was seriously nervous. Looking at how we can connect people with their Representatives isn't about campaigns... I can be used that way, but I think the more important thing is to connect people to their member from an issue and policy stand point and for services. If there are previsions in place to protect against the "campaign" stuff... then why would the rest be bad? Next time I won't be as much of a candy ass... I promise. Lets also note that I didn't get a Let My Congress Tweet Button, which makes me deeply saddened.

Libertarian Presidential candidate Rep. Bob Barr crashed NN and attended a few panels. Most notably he said two things: First, young people, he said, are pulling away from the two party system. Secondly, he said that young people were courted in the 80's but that they were allowed to fall away because no one let them be part of the policy agenda.

First comment he's right, young people do like to be decline to state or independent voters... but unfortunately for Bob it doesn't mean Libertarianism is suddenly a sexy thing that can get enough young voters to win Bob's election. The second comment is key and its something Pelosi alludes to. Creating a partnership with young voters and funneling that into how we can impact policy once the election is over will be the key to the future if a President and a party can give them a seat at the table.

We've talked about this before, and I'm really beginning to see it more and hear that policy makers are hearing it. The question remains, however, if there will be any kind of plan in place for a post-election strategy for young voters to impact the policies and candidates' legislative agendas January moving forward. Bob claims a major reason we lost young voters was because this wasn't done. I think he has something there.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome had some caused as much a stir in the halls as Bob Barr did. His comments were more focused on the authenticity of candidates and incorporating heart and soul with brains. That makes sense, I think one thing Tony Cani brought up at the Online/Offline Panel on Saturday was about the extent to which we've been marketed to to death. Could that be a reason that we crave authenticity? Or that we weigh the recommendations and endorsements from friends higher than tv commercials?

There were many other great interviews I did with bloggers, individuals, and politicians from Robin Carnahan, Secretary of State from Missouri who fought the ID law there like you wouldn't believe, Charlie Brown in the CA-4th one of my favorite candidates, Jon Powers New York Congressional Candidate, young candidate, and former soldier who we're hoping to have here doing a liveblog in the next few weeks, and Joe Garcia running for Congress in FL-25... Who tells us all below that if we come out to help on his campaign they have a beach house waiting for us... I'm kinda thinking about that actually.

Robin Carnahan I want to post when I do a larger piece about voting rights, and Jon Powers I want to post when we're about to do his live blog. Also.. I just haven't had enough time to upload them all after cutting everything. As I mentioned there will be much more and I'll post them as the become available. I sadly did NOT get to talk to Vice President Al Gore. And of all people who would be great to talk to about young people and their role in combating climate change, you'd think he'd want to talk about that that... but it didn't happen. Here's to hoping sometime this season I can talk to him about his WE campaign and what he thinks about young voters.

Videos from our exciting Youth Caucus Extravaganza! Might have to give it a sec its still loading..

Never thought I'd get these uploaded... rest below the jump

Sorry, I forgot to post this morning. I'm at NN with Kevin and Mike and have been trying to splice the video from our Youth Caucus yesterday so we can post it here. For today however... I bring you the Sumbprime Blues - my latest Rock the Trail Blog post.

The US Senate passed a housing and foreclosure prevention bill last Friday. This is in effort to stop the growing foreclosures on homes and families in crisis. The bill would create a $300 billion government-backed foreclosure prevention program and increase oversight of major government backed lending institutes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

However, this Monday the Federal Reserve announced the approval for a "final rule for home mortgage loans." The Fed says this final rule "prohibits unfair, abusive or deceptive home mortgage lending practices and restricts certain other mortgage practices. The final rule also establishes advertising standards and requires certain mortgage disclosures to be given to consumers earlier in the transaction. "

But according to a CNN report, consumer groups believe these new regulations

"contain too many loopholes, allowing reckless lending to continue. Industry executives say the proposals place too great a burden on lenders and will prompt them to further restrict credit."

Oklahoma RoseRock Bank Senior Vice President Sue Pyle says the home foreclosure crisis and new guidelines will have a major effect on new home buyers, who are often young.

"These new changes in the underwriting guidelines make things more difficult for first time home buyers," Pyle says. "When a loan application is submitted it's reviewed in much more detail with more financial documentation. What could have been approved in the past may not be today."

One monumental item Pyle says, is the increased importance of a buyer's credit score. With recent changes the minimum requirements have been increased substantially.

"If you missed a few student loan payments, which resulted in your score being lower, this could prevent you from being able to buy a house. It wasn't that tough in the past."

In addition to requiring a higher credit score, the minimum down payment required has gone up.

"We are seeing guideline changes where a great deal more financial documentation is required including deposit statements, pay stubs, with many more items being verified and re-verified than in the past," she says.

She describes a client who recently submitted 2 years of tax returns, 2 years of W2 forms, 2 recent, consecutive pay stubs, a verbal verification of the borrower's employment was completed by the mortgage processor, as well as another verification by the mortgage underwriter. This example was a home buyer that had very high credit scores and sufficient down payment funds Pyle explained.

"Even after all of that," she said, "the mortgage investor re-verified employment after the loan closed. In the past new home buyers could get a home loan with zero money down and the only verification of employment completed was one pay stub. Many changes have taken place. All home buyers, including first time home buyers, have been effected."

The changes are also causing problems for all residents who are renting homes. Investors renting homes also have stricter requirements, like bigger down payments. These end up being passed on as higher monthly rental payments. At the same time, some homeowners buy a property at an adjustable rate. This means as time goes on the interest rate on the loan fluctuates up and down and can influence the cost of the payment on the house. If someone is renting that house it means their rent can go up and down, too.

A story about local rent prices near Howard University was posted in the Hilltop Online. According to local resident R'Keim Young the cost of housing was so much that he had to go back to living in the college's dorms.

"Within the last two years, prices have risen significantly," Young said. "The same houses that were about $500 monthly have now gone up $300 more."

Housing foreclosures on younger families also have a critical impact on children. According to First Focus, a Washington DC based organization that advocates on behalf of children

"An estimated 2 million children are directly impacted by the subprime mortgage crisis as their families lose their homes due to foreclosures."

First Focus's recent report shows:

• "Due to the increasing number of foreclosures, school districts across the country are experiencing increases in the number of homeless children entering their classrooms;
• Children impacted by the mortgage crisis are likely to experience excessive mobility and as a result are only half as likely to be proficient in reading as their peers. Moreover, they are much more likely to be held back and eventually drop out of school;
• Children forced from their homes experience behavioral problems, such as increases in violence."

The crisis has inspired a number of comedic mash-ups. This one, from NauticalFilms, features the Rambo solution, and BillyBobStewart brings us The Subprime Blues.

Last night Fox News had an hour-long special on the youth vote called "The Y Factor." I have to admit that when the introduction mentioned that Millennials could be the decisive factor in the presidential election and that there was a youth vote revolution I was impressed.

The feature started out by talking about some of the characteristics of the Millennial generation: that it is the most marketed-to generation in history, that authenticity and genuineness are valued, and that the generation has been shaped by seeing organizations and corporations essentially screw over their parents.

It also talked about what the first impression of US politics was for many Millennials. The first major political news story that many were aware of was the Lewinsky scandal and the first Presidential campaign that Millennials remember was Clinton vs. Dole in 1996.

As was expected, the feature spent a lot of time talking about our generation's use of the internet and affinity for user-generated content. Specifically, to many young voters, if it doesn't exist on the internet it might as well not exist. Because of all this, word-of-mouth influence is key.

An interesting point that was made is that the reason many older people remain skeptical about the political involvement of young people is that a lot of their involvement occurs over online mediums, and those mediums are not being monitored by older people.

Winograd and Hais, authors of Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics, were interviewed in the piece and talked about some of the things they covered in the book, including that this will be a defining election in which this generation's attitudes will turn America's politics.

Another thing that was interesting was the comments made by young Republicans that were interviewed. They seemed disappointed with the Republican Party's youth outreach and admitted that their party tends to ignore young voters.

The segment ended with the following advice: Take a chance on the future of America. Respect the youth vote's intelligence. Old-school political consultants try to tell candidates not to pay attention to it, but whoever takes the chance on young voters may walk away very happy.

I've heard that there was also a segment on CNN about the youth vote but I missed it. If anyone saw it and has any thoughts please share them in the comments.