When hundreds of thousands of young latinos marched in the streets to protest HR4437, which would have established a border fence and instituted a variety of anti-migrant measures, their chant was "Today we march, tomorrow we vote."
In some respects this turned out to be true. The Hispanic vote swung dramatically towards the Democrats. Yet in others, it was less so. New voter registrations failed to materialize after the rallies.
A lack of political experience helps explain why the flow of new registrations has been halting. Some activists acknowledge that their groups have yet to master the nuances of voter registration drives -- a typically face-to-face task more complex than mobilizing a march. Others complain that political parties with the most to gain haven't financed registration efforts.
"Until the money is spent, 'Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote' will always just be a slogan," said Nativo Lopez, president of the California-based Mexican-American Political Association. "A million new registrations would cost about $10 million. Is anybody willing to pay that? I haven't seen it."
A new effort by Voto Por Tu Futuro (Vote 4 UR Future) seeks to change that. The effort is a partnership between Telemundo, mun2 - a youth focused channel - as well as political organizations like Rock the Vote, the US Hispanic Leadership Institute,and Democracia USA. Vote 4 UR Future appears to be primarily a media campaign, with PSAs and in-show advertisements directing young latinos to register to vote. In this, it would seem to most resemble MTV's Choose or Lose, a media blitz which funneled hundreds of thousands of young Americans to Rock the Vote's online voter registration tool in 2004.
In and of itself, this is a great first step. As NDN has noted, Hispanics are an important, growing portion of the electorate, and since the immigration debate they are voting Democratic by margins of 3-1. By 2050, they will be 1/4 of all voters, and they are already 18% of all Millennials. NDN also identifies young latinos, who are more acclimatized than their parents, as the political influencers in their households. Campaigns that reach out to and politicize these young voters make inroads to the larger Hispanic community.
Of course, this is only the first step. Registration is important, but it is all for naught if turnout doesn't increase as well. There is no indication as of yet as to what the campaigns GOTV strategy will be, though its partnership with Rock the Vote might give some indication. Research by Young Voter Strategies (now the research arm of Rock the Vote) show peer to peer outreach to be the most effective form of voter mobilization. We might see neighborhood canvasses in high-concentration hispanic neighborhoods led by one of the campaign's partner organizations.
Canvassing, however, is incredibly expensive. Especially for nonprofits with small budgets. The most likely form of GOTV we'll see is text message reminders in the weeks leading up to the election. When young 1st and 2nd generation americans rallied against punitive immigration legislation in 2006, those rallies were organized primarily by text message and social networking. According to a report by the New Politics Institute, Hispanic youth are twice as likely as whites to have a cell phone as their primary means of communication. Text Message GOTV seems a tactic ideally suited to turning out this community, and it is proven to be an effective GOTV tool. A recent study by Working Assets, Princeton, and the University of Michigan revealed that text message reminders are effective at bumping turnout by up to 5%, at the incredibly low cost of $1.56 per voter (compared to $30 for door to door canvasses). That's not a bad return on investment for cash-strapped non profits serving the Hispanic community.
For Democrats, this long overdue focus on Hispanics could potentially mean large gains in the South West, particularly in the swing state of New Mexico, where Hispanics already comprise over 30% of the electorate. How successful this campaign will be is an open question, nevertheless, this is an important development, and something to follow in the coming months.
