Fred Thompson

With Labor Day weekend past, schools all over the country are back in full session, barbecues are being stowed safely away from fall rains, and it's officially go time for presidential primary campaigns. The period between Labor Day and Thanksgiving is a hot and heavy one. In the next couple months, traditional media coverage will intensify and many citizens who have been ignoring the whole horserace -- or at best tracking headlines -- will start tuning in in earnest. Here are some things I'll be looking for:

Personnel Changes
As the campaign really heats up, we can expect some candidates to drop out. Those who have little cash on hand (Walnuts?) and are unable to gain traction in the polls will increasingly face questions as to how/why they're continuing to run. Those like Kucinich and Tancredo who have issues at the heart of their candidacies will stick with it to "change the debate." Others, like Joe "Running A Cabinet Position" Biden will face a more serious existential crisis.

Also, Fred Thompson will make his entry into the race official this week. With early buzz so far not mixing well with reality, Thompson's campaign reminds me more and more of Wes Clark's bid in 2003. Both were pitched as saviors of troubled parties and took off quickly in the polls. Clark crashed and burned when the participatory movement that drafted him into the race bucked and crumbled under the direction of an "official" campaign. Thompson has no such movement management problem, but his image-vs-reality issues may lead to a similarly messy meeting between the rubber and the road.

Gloves Coming Off
As media coverage drives name-recognition of all top-tier candidates into the 90th percentile, candidates looking to pick up support are increasingly going to have to look at who they can take it away from. At the polls, politics boils down to a zero sum game and those who win do so at the expense of those who lose. I expect more risky stances, more aggressive attacks, and of course the opening of mudslinging season, as campaigns in need start digging into their opposition research files, either directly or (see below) working through functionally-independent surrogates.

Frontrunners like Sen. Clinton will start taking serious incoming fire from multiple parties, but also look for 2nd and 3rd place candidates to try and pick off issue-based support from non-contending candidates, or to siphon off demographic support based on endorsements.

Independent Expenditures
This is about the time last cycle when "independent" operators started to make waves in the primary states. Remember the "Latte-sipping, volvo-driving liberal freakshow?" Expect more of that as interest groups enter the fray.

From the left, MoveOn and other groups have already run ads targeting members of congress, mostly tied to Iraq and Bush-support, but they may soon start setting their sites on Rudy McRomney and Hollywood Fred. Now is the time for opponents to define one-another's public perception, and those playing the long game are already looking at how this primary season will set the stage for next November's final showdown. In the end, there can be only one.

Shake It Up!
All in all, I'm hoping the increased pressure will shake up what has been a relatively stagnant race. I'm also curious to see who (if anyone) makes a strong play for (or possibly against!) the Millennial generation as a homestretch maneuver. I'll have more on that soon.

What are you looking/hoping for?

• ABC News is running a long piece about the youth vote - what the major candidates are doing to reach out, and what recent studies suggest are solid tactics for reaching young voters. The piece also has some rather unfortunate headlines that repeat a lot of tired ideas about the youthvote - most egregiously the article repeats the just plain wrong idea that young people didn't show up in 2004. Despite that, it's a really good piece. If you read nothing else today, read this. If you've got time, write a letter to the author about the bad stuff.
• Yesterday Young Voter Strategies released a new manual on tactics for reaching young voters - including case studies on what worked in 2006. I'm working on a big post about this, and it should be ready on Friday.
• You know all that crap about how more young people participate in American Idol than in their democracy? Well a new study by Tufts University says it's just that: crap. (Hat tip Rock the Vote Blog).
• Finally, while listening to a podcast of Meet the Press this morning, I heard conservative strategist Mary Matalin shill for Fred Thompson about how the youth vote was hot for his candidacy. She said something to the effect of there being legions of "FredHeads" waiting to volunteer. Add this to the collection of nicknames thrown at youth supporers - BarackStars, DoddPods . . . I'm sure there's one for each candidate. What's up with that?