Young Voters

The Washington Post's Dan Balz waxes poetic on the youth vote problems the GOP faces.

Obama's strength among young voters was a staple of coverage throughout his bid for the White House, although as Keeter pointed out, he could have won in November without the votes of anyone younger than 30. But his margin was the biggest in several decades and that alone should worry Republicans.

Obama may appeal to younger voters, but their shift toward the Democrats predates his candidacy. "This really is not Obama," Keeter said. "Young voters were John Kerry's best age group. They were the Democratic candidates' best age group in the 2006 elections, and they were the best age group for other Democratic candidates in 2008."

Younger voters are more diverse demographically than older voters. In 2008, 62 percent were white, compared with 74 percent eight years earlier. Projections show young voters will become increasingly diverse. They are also less religious and more culturally liberal, two indicators of Democratic support.

GOP strategist Mike Murphy described this in Time magazine as a coming Republican ice age. Republicans will need a major shift to begin to reverse these trends. That could start if there is a backlash against Obama's governance -- and the president's agenda certainly will test the country's tolerance for a big dose of government. But Republicans will need to retool in other ways to make themselves more appealing to a changing population. That debate has barely begun.

This is the message we've been waiting to see from traditional media sources, as many political observers fail to dig deeper and observe the longer political trends of today's youth. Here at FM, we've hammered home the message that this Democratic wave among young people is not due to Obama's popularity. Yes, Obama's approach has pushed things along, but since the oldest Millennials have come of age, we've always seen a clear preference toward the Democratic vision of government.

But more importantly, the Post follows this observation up with another, more vexing one for the Republican Party: it'll need to do more than hope for Obama to fail in order to steal a significant portion of the youth vote. If Millennials preferred the Democratic Party before Obama became the standard-bearer, then the Republicans have a problem larger than Obama that they need to seriously examine.

Originally posted on www.everydaycitizen.com then www.kydburro.blogspot.com

Over the past 6 months my life has drastically changed from a semi-involved political activist who worked on local campaigns and did what was needed to be done in order to get those politicians who are good for my community elected, to now being a much more involved political activist who is constantly on conference calls, networking with people I barely know and becoming a friend to them and traveling across the State and in some cases to other States to go to events in order to help strengthen and build up the Democratic party. I by no means do this alone, which brings me to why I have decided to write about importance of youth being politically active.

Being apart of the Young/ College Democrats is a choice that I am able to say that I have no regrets in making. Joining a political organization like these allow you to become part of a network... better yet a family of young people through out the State and Nation who are all interested in doing the same thing as you. Getting Democrats elected and having a blast doing so. Now don't get me wrong this family does have its crazy cousins and weird aunts/ uncles but like any family there those people who are your favorites and you get together with on a regular basis even though your in Manhattan and they are in Topeka, Lawrence, Osage City or Kansas City.

Politics is like any other group activity out there, there are those big name players, the veterans and the new guys. The great thing about politics is that its all about getting out there and being known for what your doing, you don't have to be naturally talented or the biggest guy on the field, you just have to be a hard worker and willing to roll with the punches that come your way. Young people are perfect for politics because they know how certain issues effect their demographic which is normally largely underrepresented in policy making, and they have the energy to be the ones out knocking doors week after week and the know how to use social networking sites to spread their message instantly to hundreds or thousands of people.

My experience in numerous political campaigns has always given me a passion for personally being involved but my experience in the Young/ College Democrats has instilled in me a passion for youth involvement overall. In my opinion being involved in a cause, campaign or organization is one of the most positive things a young person can do. The earlier youth start finding their voice in these things the better, because only through their work and experience can they make a change in the world around them and influence those who do make the decisions in said world. I largely encourage all youth out there to become involved in something that speaks to their interests, to work for a positive change for their issue or for their candidate and enjoy doing it.

While it should not surprise the most intense political observers, the Republican Party has lost the faith of young voters in yet another category.

A National Journal piece this weekend analyzes poll data from a Democracy Corps survey conducted from May 10-May 12.

The poll's central finding is that in the wake of President Obama's election, the traditional Republican advantage on national security issues has evaporated. Asked May 10-12 which party is better at handling "national security," 43 percent of respondents said Republican and 41 percent said Democratic -- a statistical tie.

That contrasts with the 14-point advantage (49 percent to 35 percent) that Republicans held last August in a Greenberg-Rosner poll, and the 29-point edge (54 percent to 25 percent) that they held six months after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

Moreover, the latest survey indicates that Democrats now hold sizable leads over Republicans on several components of national security, such as diplomacy. Asked which party is superior at "improving global respect for America," respondents gave Democrats a whopping 36-point edge. On "working with our allies around the world," Democrats ended up with a 27-point margin.

The new Democracy Corps poll also found that Democrats hold advantages -- albeit slimmer ones -- on the questions of which party would do a better job with "the situation in Afghanistan" (12 percentage points) and "the situation in Iraq" (10 points).

While the GOP still has a decent foothold among youth with regard to national security issues, currently statistically tied with Democrats, their disadvantage is clear. Their huge momentum loss from 2003 to now has to be depressing in its own right, but on top of that, the Millennial worldview has changed. Millennial views of national security are steeped in multilateralism, with diplomacy at the forefront. And as indicated in the excerpt above, Democrats dominate similarly-focused survey categories.

This has to be encouraging news to the Truman Project, an organization that trains progressive youth to lead on matters of national security. On its website, the Truman Project notes that it has trained youth who have now gone on to positions of importance, such as military leaders, campaign advisers, and congressional staffers.

Thanks to its hard work, the Truman Project and other organizations targeting progressive youth have assisted in developing a generation of Millennial activists creating positive change. As a consequence, the Republican Party is contracting with no apparent clue of how to stop it.

JWT's February AnxietyIndex quantitative study examined attitudes around current events with a sample of both 18-29 year olds as well as a small sample of teens.

Young people are certainly feeling the effects of the recession, 77% are feeling nervous or anxious as a result of the economic conditions. Its nearly even with the overall 18 and over sample.

Teens, however, are a little less anxious but still 64% are. The difficult stat is the 46% of parents who don't think their teens are worried about the economic conditions. Unfortunatly, 71% of teens surveyed are more likely to have increased anxiety as a result of talking to their parents (the ones who don't think their kids are worried). Sixty percent draw anxiety from conversations with teachers about the economy.

When looking at the issues that concern most Americans and comparing it to youth, the economy is overwhelmingly the number one issue with cost of living following behind, and health care in a near third place. Where young people are even with the overall electorate is with their concerns about job security and our current military hostilities. Interestingly, few Americans have fears about the political leadership which probably accounts for the high job approval ratings for the President.

Closer examination about attitudes and anxieties that young people have - its interesting to see that 60% of young people feel like they are being dealt with unfairly during this recession. This makes some of the work that 80 Million Strong is doing even more important. The 80M project, if you haven't heard, is working to develop support among young people to lobby Congress and the White House to look at the economic conditions and job market from the youth perspective as well as the middle aged perspective - because youth unemployment is actually greater than overall unemployment. This, of course, while we shoulder obscene debt from college or predatory credit card companies.

Further, only 34% say their friends have interesting "entrepreneurial" jobs to make money, and 70% say most of the people their age are worried about the recession.

Check this one out. Due to the difficulties we're facing more teens are being forced to think about things normally left up to adults. This can have an interesting effect on youth as they grow as well. Ideally, they'll be more likely to be aware of their own financial situation and more aware of predatory credit card companies. But those choosing whether or not to attend college might put off such a huge purchase because they fear for their own financial stability.

Most encouraging is that while the top three fears of youth have to do with jobs after graduation, giving up things because of financial hardships, and concerns about their parents, the forth major concern is that the condition of the planet being left to their generation will be less than they feel they deserve. On the chart of concerns, this is actually the only ideological concern for teens. The others consisted of typical ego issues and economic hardship questions.

I think this gives some interesting room for Congress and the White House to work in the upcoming years. Not only are 18-29 year olds deeply concerned about the environment, but up and coming voters very seriously care about the condition of the planet. I think this might even put to bed any concerns about our environmental progress over the next several years. As Global Warming Deniers die off they'll be quickly replaced with strong environmentalists.

Finally, when looking at what things both young people and teens are willing to give up in tough economic times an overwhelming number said they couldn't give up their internet connection or cell phones, because they use it for social connectivity. Ninety percent of teens said they had to have an internet connection, and only 11% of 18-29 year olds said they'd be willing to give it up. Seventy-three percent of teens wouldn't give up their phones, and 89% of 18-29 year olds wouldn't. This also gives us a pretty strong picture of the best way to communicate with young people probably won't change for a long time. Online and cell phones were a major connection from campaigns and orgs this election, they'll only become more powerful with attitudes like this.

JWT is coming at this from a product and marketing perspective so ideas about anxiety among groups are important to them. Here's why they say things like fear is important:

"Fear is rising fast amid a worldwide recession that has corporations slashing jobs around the globe and many consumers unsure about making the next credit card or mortgage payment. Add a 24-7 media environment in which bad news spreads fast and repeats endlessly, and you have a highly anxious world—and tens of millions of consumers seeking guidance and assurance.

That’s why we believe anxiety matters. Anxious consumers look for brands that can give them a sense of control over their lives, whether that means staying within their budget at the supermarket or finding cheap alternatives to going out. Navigating consumer anxieties is not about exploiting fear. It’s about finding better ways to connect with consumers looking for trust, credibility and answers."

Products are no different than candidates and politicians. Those who can give comfort and trust in a time of crisis and help create a sense of control will be the most successful.

In a report released yesterday by Women's Voices Women Vote (pdf) evidence of continued voting problems are particularly high among women.

According to a report on the... report in the Chicago Sun Times

"While the study discusses obstacles to voter participation in general, it focuses on the unique impact it has on traditionally under-represented groups who comprise the majority (52%) of the population -- African Americans, Latinos, unmarried women and young voters -- it is unmarried women who drive this majority and the mission of Women's Voices Women Vote."

I would say it amazes me, but I'm not the least bit shocked. Particularly, since Oklahoma's Legislature which had promised to allow previsions for students to vote with their ID's, passed a bill that will go to a vote of the people to vote provisional ballot if they don't have an ID or voter card.

Anything to reduce the power of that 52% right?

As TWW accurately says "If women were the only voters, the Democrats would win in a landslide every time. If men were the only voters, the GOP would be the left-wing party." But I digress.

This 2008 Brennan Center map below also illustrates the state variations related to identification needed to vote:

(click to make larger)

"Moreover, because of unclear and complicated rules in states and counties regarding who receives a provisional ballot, some voters who should get provisional ballots are turned away from the polls and others who qualify for a regular ballot are given provisional ballots."

The report goes on to say that in 2004 the top five problems at the polls had to do with provisional ballots. Not just the highest problem... but the top five. Fer realz.

Mike reported almost two years ago about unmarried single women and the important role they would play in the 2008 election. What WVWV found recently was that not only were they key players, they are also an ever increasing demographic.

"Unmarried women are the fastest growing large demographic in the population, comprising 25% of the voting age population," said Page Gardner, president and founder of WVWV. . . "Challenges that affect unmarried women most particularly, include greater mobility and access to less economic resources -- they have the highest poverty rate of any cross-section of the adult population," said Gardner. "Yet it is exactly this portion of the population for whom we make voter registration most difficult in this country."

The study also makes great mention of Election Day Registration (aka Same Day Registration) saying that in areas that have it there was a indeed a higher turnout - but further those areas lead in the highest turnout areas in the country.

In a report (pdf) from our good friends over at Demos, EDR has increased turnout as much as 10% in some areas and the administrative costs for EDR are often times lower than the non-EDR states.

Finally, the WVWV data outlines "the the most significant obstacles to voter participation."

1. "Voter Registration: controversies over voter registration produced more litigation than any other election issue in 2008, primarily due to outdated and problematic voter registration systems. By allowing reforms such as universal registration and greater uniformity of registration standards, many registration issues could be resolved. (emphasis mine)
2. Absentee and Early Voting: the rate of voters casting ballots via absentee or early voting methods is on the rise (38 million Americans in 2008). However, the rules surrounding these methods vary significantly from state to state. . .
3. Voter Identification Requirements: lack of consistency across state lines in relation to the types of ID required (e.g., driver's license, proof of citizenship) as well as whether ID is required at all, make it confusing and cumbersome to register and/or cast a ballot.
4. Provisional Ballots: among the top five complaints logged by the Election Protection Coalition's hotline during the 2004 election were problems with provisional ballots. . .
5. Voter Lists: state regulations are notably inconsistent when it comes to the maintenance of voter registration lists -- from who updates them to how the state maintains them, whether state or local election officials allow for name variations, and how and when the lists are purged."

TPM has a great piece about young people this week, speaking specifically about how our turnout has caused problems in the voting systems because our transient nature apparently causes added paperwork at the county election board.

Now, it seems, some states are moving to the "universal registration" route where 16 year olds become registered the same time as the are getting their driver's license, but of course can't vote until they are 18.

"California and Rhode Island are among the states that have introduced legislation permitting 16- and 17-year-old citizens to register to vote in advance of their 18th birthdays. Rhode Island bills, SB 85 and HB 5005 show promise to pass the legislature - a prospect that is nothing new to the state, which has passed such bills three years in a row only to have them vetoed by the governor, according to research and advocacy group, Fair Vote."

Universal registration is something that Rock the Vote has taken on as their major legislative agenda item and the Student PIRGs have taken on in the past.

Georgia10 from Kos makes a great point about the ACORN attacks this past fall:

"By so vigorously highlighting the very real problems with third-party registration model, the GOP has unwittingly provided the best argument in favor of having the government step in and facilitate a universal registration system. And so, the irony is that in trying to suppress voter turnout by calling even valid registrations into question, Republicans have opened the door to a long-overdue discussion on how best to reform our inherently flawed voter registration system in order to ensure that every American who has the right to vote may do so without redtape barriers."

TPM asserts that by creating a government structure that mandates pre-registration certainly makes things much more convienent, but it also makes it easier to do programming in high schools and at DMVs because you can access the information about young people before they escape to college and out of their parents' home.

"it also helps "boost the effectiveness of civics education by tying it directly to civic participation through the opportunity to preregister," according to a Fair Vote report. The report further notes that "uniform" preregistration laws, like those in Hawaii and Florida, help alleviate general voter registration ills by acting as a "cost-effective step toward greater standardization, which means a cleaner, more accurate data set. Pre-registration could also save money and minimize human error by allowing students to register year round at points of civic engagement and education..."

TPM also had a great piece about the diversity that occurred this election. It was a particularly youthy day over at the TPM - good for them!

This morning fellow FM blogger Karlo is at the Roosevelt Institute Health Care Forum and wanted to do a liveblog of the event. Instead the wifi is a bit spotty so he is live tweeting it from his phone.

Feel free to watch via his twitter account but here are some of his tweets below. I will try to update as they develop.

• the end =)
• LA: people need to keep up the momentum, urge you reps to hold town hall meetings with their constituents.
• LA: its too early to say what the minimum benefits pricing model will be.
• LA: we are reaching out to all communities. If people want to talk with us, we meet with them. This process is open and transparent.
• LA: massachusetts shows that penalties, even low ones, work. . . They are at 90% coverage.
• LA: coordinating care, such as having doctors know what tests and medications you have had, leads to better quality care and lowers costs.
• LA: check out healthreform.gov and tell us your ideas/stories.
• LA: Process-wise, the first challenge was getting health care in the budget. now that the budget has passed, This is an enormous victory.
• LA: we have a shortage of primary care physicians and nurses.
• LA: privacy is a big issue. We will be hiring a privacy officer at HHS
• LA and the audience are going off on electronic medical records and heath information technology in general.
• LA: the stimulus provided 90 billion in Medicaid money to the states, because of state budget shortfalls.
• LA: obama sees health care reform as a moral and financial imperative. Health costs are rising and eating up GDP
• LA: changing the system to incentivize quality care
• LA: three prongs to health care reform: cost, choice, and quality care. This is our time, we waited 15 years.
• LA: health care reform is the top domestic priority for this year.
• Keynote is here!
• Advocates for youth and campus progress folks are in attendance!
• Advocates for youth and campus progress folks are in attendance!less than
• @caitlinhowarth is leading a great summit. Very excited for lauren aronson's keynote speech!less than a minute ago
• break soon, then keynote speaker lauren aronson, policy director for the white house office for healthcare reform =)
• roosevelt Students giving presentations now. They are energized and have great ideas about how to mobilize their campuses!
• MG: PHIP is the only way to control costs, ensure quality, + force private insurance companies 2 finally put our health b4 their profits
• MG: polling shows that nearly 3 out of 4 voters want a public health insurance option. 'this plan is built on choice'
• Melinda gibson, health care 4 america now, presents. 'this is the moment' 'this is different', in regards to public health insurance plan
• JU: young voters need to hear that this is a pocket book issue. . . It concerns all of us.
• JU: . . . But young voters feel a stronger sense of urgency to change the system than voters overall
• JU: young voters are more worried than voters overall about changes in health care reform. . .
• JU: how to talk to young voters about health reform- personal dialogue works best, more likely to worry about their family and self.
• JU: young voters choose 'rising health care costs' as the number 2 issue. Women more concerned than men.
• JU: poll finding: 'health care is a much more salient concern for young voters than people might have thought.'about
• JU: under 30s view the debate thru a cost prism. . .a lot of anger at health insurance companies overall, but less among younger ppl
• Joshua Ulibarri, lake research partners, discusses keys to engaging young americans in the health care debate.
• SB: our country has a low use of medical records when compared to other nations.
• SB: very few americans pay no out of pocket costs, while many pay over 1000 or more (a lot when compared to other nations)
• SB: it is hard to get a same day appointment and takes long to schedule one when compared to other developed nations.
• SB: even for people with insurance, 1 in 4 is having problems saying medical bills. 1 in 2 among those without health insurance.
• SB: other democratic nations developed a mechanism for insuring everyone, but not us
• SB: our health care system 'costs are 25% or greater than those of any other wealthy democratic nation.'
• SB: ' more than 100 millions persons uninsured, underinsured, or unable to pay their medical bills.'
• Sara rosenbaum - dir of GWU health policy department. Presents public health stats and wonky jokes
• robert nelb welcomes summit attendees. 'create advocacy campaigns around graduation, a time when students lose their health insurance.'
• Check that - Rx Summit
• Just arrived at the marvin center for the roosevelt institution health forum.

In an outstanding example of the use of online technology and social media, the Lawrence Journal World did a twitter-view with Douglas County Clerk Jamie Shew about the way his office is using social media as a way to do better outreach.

Last week I emphasized the need for accessibility through technology for the Kansas State House and Senate, but the Douglas County Clerk was well on his way of advocating for greater outreach through social media as early as last year when he first began tweeting.

Now the, somewhat young, elected official is using the new world of technology in attempts to get more young people in Lawrence (home of the University of Kansas) to vote in the upcoming city elections.

"Recently, he and his staff members have started posting messages on Twitter reminding Douglas County voters that advance voting was open this week at the courthouse, 1100 Mass.

“Social media seems to be able to spread messages quickly across multiple domains,” Shew said.

His office also has been looking at ways to expand its communication reach, especially when his budget is limited.

“Governments have to start thinking outside the bricks and mortar of the courthouse to create contact points in the new information age,” he said."

I know of no previous twitter-views but I have to say this must be one of the first. Shew goes further to talk about his outreach through a full on interview back and forth between the LJWorld and Shew.

Most Notable:

"@dgcokselections: It is an additional tool for outreach, especially for mobilization of new generations of voters who communicate via social media.

@dgcokselections: It has been gradual as we test which venues are appropriate. Using Twitter to share info that is broadcast in more traditional methods.

@dgcokselections: We are really interested in developing a full scale approach by the 2010 elections when social media will have expanded even more.

@dgcokselections: This has been in conjunction with our expanded use of the Web site to get information out to the public like online sample ballots."

I applaud any elected official who is using new technologies to reach out to young people, indeed all constituents, in their district. It does us all a disservice when we can't connect with our elected members, but with further outreach on sites like Twitter, MySpace, and Facebook we all have a stronger connection to government. In the end it will grow civic engagement and hopefully civic pride.

We're running out of ways to say it. But some poll results released by Democracy Corps this week yield perilous signs for the GOP's relevance to today's youth. The poll analysis diagnoses the problem.

Republicans struggle among young people for a very specific reason. At a time when young people are paying close attention to politics and when so many are struggling economically, even more so than older generations, the Republicans simply do not speak to the reality of their lives or to the issues important to them. This perception stands in marked contrast to their reaction to Barack Obama. Nationally, voters’ opinion of the President may have cooled slightly—and inevitably—in recent weeks, but among younger voters, he has never been more popular. They strongly support his economic policy and are confident that he will make a difference in their lives.

As Winograd and Hais might say it, the GOP is stuck in the idealist era, when the nation could afford to entertain a divided government. In an idealist era, "bipartisanship" means finding the lowest common denominator between two ideological extremes. With the way Washington is, that process takes a while. And with voters handing the executive branch to one party and the legislative branch to the other over decades of time, they put their seal of approval on this arrangement. Until now.

But in 2008, America moved to a new political era and everything changed, including the meaning of bipartisanship, as the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression pushed the country into another civic era. In this environment, the American public, which had preferred divided government during the previous idealist era, now endorses unified government. A CNN survey conducted immediately after the 2008 general election indicated that a clear majority (59%) favored the idea of the Democrats controlling both elective branches of the federal government. Only 38 percent said that one-party rule was a bad idea. The public used a clearly civic era rationale to explain its changed attitude, telling Wall Street Journal pollsters that when the same party controls both the presidency and Congress, "it will end gridlock in Washington and things will get done." A recent CBS/New York Times survey confirmed the desire for decisive action across the institutional lines of a newly unified government. A clear majority (56%) wants President Obama to pursue the policies he promised in the campaign rather than working in a bipartisan way with Republicans (39%). By contrast, an even larger majority (79%) wants congressional Republicans to work in a bipartisan way with the President rather than sticking to Republican policies.

What do young voters have to do with this? Well, they form the backbone of the new civic era. From a Winograd and Hais Washington Post op-ed piece in February 2008:

Unlike the young baby boomers, millennials want to strengthen the political system, not tear it down. According to a study last year by the Pew Research Center, most millennials (64 percent) disagree that the federal government is wasteful and inefficient, while most older Americans (58 percent) think it is. A 2006 survey by Frank N. Magid Associates indicated that millennials are more likely than older generations to believe that politicians care what people think and are more concerned with the good of the country than of their political party.

It also showed that millennials, more than their elders, believe that U.S. political institutions will deal effectively with concerns the nation will face in the future.

Given the public's disapproval of both Congress and President Bush, we're going to need all the optimism and change we can generate to overcome those challenges. Luckily, the millennial generation, like its GI generation forebears, is arriving right on time to deliver just what America needs.

In the Democracy Corps poll, we see that today's youth strongly agree with the president on issues, most importantly, his economic stimulus plan.

Young people support the stimulus package convincingly (68 percent favor, 20 percent oppose) and in much higher numbers than older Americans. Young people doing well financially are only marginally less likely to support the plan (65 percent favor) than young people overall and even among Republicans, only 47 percent oppose.

Young people believe the stimulus plan will work, not only in improving the economy overall, but also in improving their own lives in particular. A 71 percent majority describe themselves as confident the stimulus plan will work overall, 68 percent are confident it will improve their own situation, including 68 percent of those who describe their personal economic situation as just fair or poor.

We also learn that youth, like never before, are closely watching the events in Washington.

Young people are paying attention to Washington. Nearly half (45 percent) of young people watched the President’s prime time address on February 24th and 75 percent describe themselves as following the Obama administration closely. Even among young people who are not registered to vote, a 60 percent majority say they have watched the Administration carefully.

And what are Millennials, who strongly support President Obama, watching so closely?

The above is a perfect example of a Republican Party that is stuck on sideshows from the idealist era, and can't problem-solve or make a legitimate effort to pursue the common good in its politics. No figures were offered in their budget proposal; instead, the GOP leadership attacked the other side.

As long as young people and their opinions are ignored, no amount of tweeting or other desperate attempts to use technology will matter. The GOP treats youth as irrelevant, and young voters consequently view Republicans the same way.

This... is genius... Totally genius. The best part is that the liberal monster doesn't want to kill Megahan McCain because she's smart and nice and not an evil republican because she thinks young people are important. Well that part and the laughing monkey Ann Coulter in the corner.