Research

Stuff you should know and see that I won't be blogging in depth:

• Looks like we have another YEO! John Tyler Hammons, a 17 year old freshman at the University of Oklahoma was elected the mayor of Muskegee, a town of 38,000 people. He ran on a good government platform and won in a run-off against the former mayor, capturing 70% of the vote. Way to go John. - The Politico
• Young evangelicals continue to abandon Bush and the GOP over Iraq and the economy. - Huffington Post
• The Godfathers of GOTV testing and research, Gerber and Green, have a new book out pimping Peer to Peer as the best form of organizing. Direct mail and robo-call consultants everywhere are not happy. - Campaigns and Elections
• Two articles say that Obama will need the "senior vote" if he is to beat McCain. I tend not to agree. There are more voters under 30 than over 65, and in some contests we are already performing on par with their turnout. It all depends on how many new young voters show up in November. - Democratic Strategist
• Obama is the king of voter-generated music tributes. - The Politico
• Republicans held a fashion show on the National Mall to show off their new convention swag. This was my favorite photo. And no, this is not a joke. - Minnesota Monitor

Who at the GOP thought it was a good idea to bring back MC Hammer pants? And I'm pretty sure that if that little girl were a lib'rul, we'd hear wingnuts screaming about flag desecration.

A new report by the PEW Research Center confirms what rising primary turnout is already telling us: there is a huge demographic shift approaching in the electorate in the form of the Millennial Generation, and that shift will largely benefit the Democratic Party.

As the PEW data indicates, this is a shift that is occurring among almost all segments of the Millennial generation, but the shift along gender lines seems to be most significant. Among young voters (18 - 29 year olds), in the last 16 years, young women have moved from a +8 advantage for the Democrats (50 - 42%) to an incredible +35 point advantage (63 - 28%). Among young men, that partisan identification has moved from a 10 point deficit (42 - 52% Republican) to a 14 point advantage (52 - 38%).

These are seismic shifts in the electorate and they are hugely significant.

In the 1980s and early 1990s, it was Generation X and the late Baby Boomers who occupied the 18 - 29 year olds slot in the electorate. They were very conservative as a group and helped elect Reagan and Bush Sr., and usher in the Gingrich Revolution. That laid the groundwork for the Republican majorities we have suffered through these last two decades.

The Millennial Generation is larger than the Baby Boom, and on almost every issue they are vastly more progressive. That fact is starting to come through in their voting habits and party identification. As the PEW data makes clear, Millennials could do for Democrats what the late Boomers and Gen Xers did for the Republicans - forge a new governing majority.

One more item of note in the Pew data. Research tells us that if you can get a voter to cast their ballot for a certain party in their first three major elections, that person tends to become a party voter for life. The PEW data shows that Gen X may be one of the first generations to actually buck that trend:

Apparently the Bush Administration's policies are so toxic that they are driving away one of the Republican Party's most loyal bases.

Sorry for the lite posting schedule lately. My class and some social obligation are eating up my time this week and next. Regularly scheduled programing will return on Wednesday. Items on the horizon include: Metrics and Memes (and how they are related), the Gamer Constituency, and more website reviews. In the meantime, here are a few things that have been sitting in my inbox that I don't have time to fully get into:

The New York Times has a very interesting (if somewhat dubious) article noting that evangelical teens are disappearing like it was The Rapture.

Their alarm has been stoked by a highly suspect claim that if current trends continue, only 4 percent of teenagers will be “Bible-believing Christians” as adults. That would be a sharp decline compared with 35 percent of the current generation of baby boomers, and before that, 65 percent of the World War II generation.

Buried at the bottom of the article are claims that may actually debunk this data. But if its true, it bodes well for a future progressive majority (or at least a greatly reduced evangelical conservative minority). At the very least, its a fascinating and sometimes creepy article about evangelical youth culture that anyone interested in appealing to young voters should look at.

CIRCLE released a new study tracking youth civic participation and it paints a mixed picture - more young people are involved, but 20% are completely disengaged. The survey is getting a lot of press, and Peter Levine comments on the commentary, noting that news organizations are either pumping up the greater involvement angle, or focusing negatively on the 20% who aren't engaged. He's got a great quote in this FOX story that all communications folks at campaigns and youth groups should take to heart:

"The public, the political parties and the media all need to be reminded that saying that young people just don't participate reinforces the myth," said Peter Levine director of CIRCLE. "Youth turnout was sharply up in 2004, and the survey shows that when young people are asked to vote and volunteer, they are much more likely to do so."

Other noteworthy findings in the survey include:

• Increase in Anti-Immigrant Sentiment and Drop in Acceptance of Homosexuals. 6% and 7% respectively.
• Immigration Protests Drew Mass Youth Support: 23% of immigrant youth, and 18% second generation youth attended demonstrations.
• Shift in identification: 28% self identify as Republicans, down from 31%. Dem identification stayed the same at 47%
• Majority tuned in to politics: 72% say they stay informed of current events and politics

Finally, a new study from Indiana University says that The Daily Show is just as substantive as network and cable news programs when it comes to covering current events and politics.