Barack Obama

Here's whats up

Young Obama fans crucial to victory, need resilience. Good piece about how young people can impact what is going on for Obama and the extent to which they need to be encouraged.

MTV Spotlights Young Veterans this holiday season. "on July 4th MTV2 will honor the millions of young men and women who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan."

Young Voters Look Carefully at Candidates. Harvard IOP's spring poll says that only 6% of those who plan to vote in November are doing so because of a specific candidate. This is another indicator that young people are smart enough to make up their minds about the issues.

Obama highlights Services and Responsibility on Patriotism Tour. In Monday's speech on Patriotism, Obama spoke about the importance of encouraging civil service and participation among young people

"The appeal may have an audience on university campuses and military bases full of young voters who have already taken up the service call.

"I think he's got a shot," said an Air Force officer at the speech, who requested anonymity so he was not seen as speaking for the service. "I think he's got real appeal with young people, all young people."

Young Evangelicals Contemplating Obama over at Huffington Post.

"At one evangelical college in Santa Barbara, CA, a small group of faculty and staff supporting presidential candidate Barack Obama are preparing for challenging conversations in their community as they look ahead to the fall semester."

Why are Republicans so Un-Cool answers the question in an interesting way. There are so many reasons... so so many.

Beep beep... get on board... Young Voters hitch a Ride on the Bus

Media Consultant Paul Gillin discusses media buys that focus on young people and how the 30 second spot doesn't do it for em anymore.

Young Voters hold the Key to the Future of America ... really just read the title... its a nice pick-me-up

In ten years historians will look back on this week and declare that it is was a ground breaking week for Barack Obama. And nope, it won’t be because the junior senator from Illinois picked a running mate or because “Young Berry” delivered another one of his trademark speeches. This week was important because for the first time it became clear to many of his die hard supporters that Barack Obama might not be all that progressive.

From the FISA Bill to his support of Bush’s faith based initiatives to his willingness to throw Wesley Clark under the bus, this week Obama has proven that he won’t be right (no pun intended) on every issue. In fact after this week it’s becoming clear that he is going to be wrong a lot more than we would like him to be

Of course, the truth is that we really don’t need Obama to be on the right side of all the issues all of the time. Nor should we really expect him to be. After all skeptics in the blogosphere have been hacking away at him for months, claiming that his voting record has been spotty at best.

At the end of the day, as young progressives we really just need Obama to be accountable to us most of the time and the rest of time it’s going to be up to us to push back and fight with the him. Let's be honest, it’s going to be our vote that gets him in the office. We shouldn’t be afraid to roll up our sleeves and go 12 rounds with him.

But I have to be honest, I am starting to wonder if our generation has “the sand” to consistently stand up to Obama when he strays from the progressive path. So many of my friends, family and former coworkers have drunk so much of the Obama Kool Aid that I some times wonder if they can still see straight. I mean, it’s all right to love your candidate but as young activists we shouldn’t be naïve. Obama is going to continue to be tempted to move toward the center, especially if he wins on November 4th. We just can’t follow him there.

Originally posted at The Nation.

A few weeks ago, the Obama campaign caused a stir when it suggested that major progressive donors should abstain from supporting independent organizations outside of the campaign working to influence the election. The implication at the time was that Obama was talking solely about 527 independent media organizations (progressive equivalents of Swift Boat Veterans for Truth), but if taken to its logical conclusion, these statements could apply to any number of electorally engaged organizations, including youth institutions that do partisan voter registration and GOTV. This makes me nervous.

In talking with youth organizers, my sense is that there is already far less money on the table for partisan youth GOTV work this cycle than there was at this time in 2004. Obama's phenomenal track record in turning out young voters is one of the dominant media narratives this cycle and I'm worried that donors will take Obama at his word and leave the youth vote work to the campaign. That would be a mistake and I want to lay out a few reasons why that is so:

• Youth Orgs Are Complementary and Boost Turnout Even Higher: Young voters made up the highest share of the electorate in the two states where the campaigns were joined in their GOTV efforts by a strong, independent youth-focused effort. In Iowa, youth were 22% of the electorate, outperforming their share of eligible voters and comprising a higher portion of the electorate than the so-called reliable seniors. In New Hampshire, youth were 18% of the electorate - the second highest share for youth during the primary process, and 43% of all young voters turned out, far and away the highest level of actual turnout among 18 - 29 year olds. In both of these states independent youth organizations like Rock the Vote, the Young Democrats and the Young Voter PAC worked to turnout young voters. Few thought that the primary season would extend beyond these states and most organizations lacked resources or time to organize efficiently elsewhere. That lack of resources was evident in the youth turnout and share of the electorate, which were lower in the other 48 states.
• Obama Needs Help Reaching Non-College Youth: Obama has had great success in exciting the youth vote, but primarily these were college-educated young voters. According to CIRCLE, only 1 in 14 non-college youth voted in a primary or caucus this cycle, compared to 1 in 4 college-educated youth. Organizations like the Young Democrats, The League, and others focus most of their energies off college campuses and in the communities. It is here, in turning out these hard to reach youth, that they can contribute most to Obama's candidacy.
• Youth Organizations Will Increase Turnout for Down-Ballot Races: Presidential cycles are great because they drum up a lot of excitement, but they also tend to induce myopia among the electorate. The latest youth poll from Democracy corps indicates that Sen. Obama is dominating Senator McCain among young voters, but will those young people vote on down ballot races? Or, lacking information on the candidates, will they decline to vote? Will the Obama campaign, with its shiny new 50-state strategy campaign on behalf of down ballot candidates? Maybe, but we don't really know for sure and we dont' know to what extent. As we saw in 2006, supporting partisan youth organizations outside the campaign will ensure that young voters don't just turnout to elect a president, but turnout to elect a whole new wave of Democrats at all levels of government.
• Youth Organizations Do Not Disappear After Election Day: On a similar note, many activists and political operatives are starting to notice that Barack Obama is now in possession of one of the largest lists in progressive politics. It is highly likely he also has the largest youth list in progressive politics. He is marshaling the support of these new political activists to great effect on behalf of his campaign, but will their engagement continue beyond the election? Will the Obama campaign morph into a new, critical piece of progressive infrastructure as Dean for America did when it became Democracy for America? Or will it dissipate like the many campaigns of Ralph Nader or the campaign of John Kerry? What will that mean for the youth vote during the 2010 midterms? Thanks to the work of over a dozen new youth institutions, young voters are trending increasingly Democratic and an infrastructure exists to ensure they stay that way for decades to come. It would be the worst kind of short-term thinking to deprive that infrastructure of vital resources at a time when youth interest is higher than it has been in decades. We should be helping our nascent youth infrastructure capitalize on that excitement, not using it as an excuse to invest resources elsewhere.
• Don't Repeat the Mistakes of the Republicans: There is a precedent for all of this. The Republicans conducted aggressive youth vote outreach in the 1980s and it paid dividends. Young voters routinely chose the GOP candidate (Reagan, Bush Sr.) over their Democratic opponents. But the Republicans became complacent and their courting of young voters became less of a priority in the early 90s, allowing the Democrats to briefly recapture the youth vote. In 2000, youth turnout was essentially a wash, splitting 48 - 46 in favor of Al Gore. It's only in the past three cycles that Democrats have secured a dominant advantage among Millennials. Win or lose, the Obama campaign will not be around forever. Let's not make the same mistakes as the GOP and shoot our highly successful youth infrastructure in the foot when we're barely out of the gate.

One of the greatest challenges that all progressive organizations face is the cyclical nature of progressive funding, which tends to ramp up during election years and dramatically scale back during off-years. This has been doubly true for youth organizations, which only recently began to receive substantial funds to sustain and occasionally expand their work. All of the points I've listed here provide a compelling rationale for donors to continue investing in youth organizing outside the scope of the Obama campaign. No matter how successful the Obama campaign is at reaching youth, it is foolish to sacrifice a growing youth infrastructure and put all of our faith in one campaign, and one candidate. Let's not get caught up in the myopia that so often accompanies Presidential politics. Let's have the vision to make smart, long-term investments in our youth and the sustainable institutions that can engage them for years to come.

Just a few links today . . .

• In the Washington Post, Jose Antonio Vargas notes that Left or Right, young or old, the internets hate John McCain.
• AlterNet interviews Keli Goff about her new book, Party Crashing, and the political trends among young African American voters.
• Across the Great Divide - a potentially interesting new blog chronicling the cross-country travels of a Millennial out to discover if his peers really are the "Next Great Generation."
• The Chicago Tribune runs the numbers and thinks young voters could tip a few vital swing states this year:
  

  If Obama could inspire just 10 percent more Democratic voters under 30 to go to the polls than did four years ago, that alone could be enough to switch Iowa and New Mexico from red to blue, the analysis suggests.

• Some pranksters (young freepers?) interrupted a conference call with Sherrod Brown, George Miller and the PIRGs about the College Cost Reduction and Access Act. - h/t PushBack
• Finally, John Stewart continues to warm my heart by mocking McCain. I think Stewart's man-crush is officially over.

• Marc Ambinder notes that for the first time, MTV will accept paid political advertisements. Gawker has the appropriately snarky response.
• Kevin Bondelli notes that SMS is one of the best tools for organizing rural youth.
• McCain has a Facebook App! Called "Pork Invaders," the game lets you sling vetos at unnecessary spending projects symbolized by big flying pigs. I can already envision the Democratic response - a Facebook App that lets you play wack-a-mole with McCain's lobbyist buddies.
• Speaking of campaign-related video games, does anyone else remember the Bush Game from back in 2004? Good times.
• Because I'm a geek and I already miss Battlestar Galactica, I'll post this essay on Why I'd Vote for Baltar. It's the new "I voted for Kodos."
• Facebook has finally surpassed MySpace in unique viewers per month.
• Michael Hais and Morley Winograd note that political coalitions are changing, but the pundits can't shake their old models.
• Student PIRGs report that lower interest rates beginning in July on Stafford Loans will save students thousands of dollars.
• The Seattle Times wonders if Obama will be able to help down-ballot candidates.
• At WireTap, Kristina Rizga has a few ideas about closing the participation gap between college and non-college youth.
• For those who couldn't attend, this was one of the highpoints of the PDF conference - Tracy Russo (former Edwards blogger) smacking down McCain internet advisor Mark SooHoo about McCain's understanding of the potential of the internet to transform governance:

• Finally, I'm wondering what y'all think of this Blogging Heads video about the political implications of Hip Hop:

Democracy Corps has released the latest edition in their "Youth for the Win" young voter polls: The Rising Wave Among Young People. The poll tracks youth involvement and measures youth support for the two candidates. Most of the information deals with McCain and the continued collapse of the Republican brand among young people. I'll have a separate post on that later today. Right now I want to focus on Democracy Corps' findings re: Senator Obama.

Democracy Corps notes that Senator Obama is expanding his lead over McCain among young voters and even exceeding the levels of youth support Democrats enjoyed during the 2006 wave elections. Significantly, he is also quickly consolidating the Democratic base and pulling in most of Clinton's core youth support:

Barack Obama now holds a 60 to 33 percent lead over John McCain with young people in this country. Among young voters most likely to vote, this lead jumps to 66 – 33 percent. Historically, these margins exceed Kerry’s showing in 2004 (54 – 45 percent) and echo the young people’s revolt against the Republican Congress in 2006 (60 – 38 percent). In claiming the nomination, Obama managed to consolidate Democrats and improve his showing among voting blocs that, at the national level, often preferred Hillary Clinton.

In an incredibly short amount of time, Obama has made double digit gains among unmarried women and Hispanics, and his favorability ratings have seen similar jumps. Democracy Corps notes that he still has ground to gain among young, married white women and "older" (24 - 29) white women, but beyond that he is quickly approaching the ceiling in terms of consolidating Democratic youth support. After that, any gains among young voters will be made among independents or Republicans dissatisfied with McCain (a growing group, as we'll see later).

So much for the divided Democratic Party.

I’m at the Personal Democracy Forum conference today and tomorrow. I’ll be live blogging from some sessions later in the day. In the meantime, I want to remind you to please spread the word about our new user-blogs, and post up a few links that you might have missed this weekend:

• George Carlin, champion of free speech, is dead.. That sucks.
• The always interesting Colin Delaney (who I’m sure is here in the room somewhere) injects a little realism into the discussion in these 7 Lessons from the Obama Campaign.
• Screw the Millennials. Charlie Cook thinks this election is all about white, male, Baby Boomers. (I of course disagree).
• Most voters believe McCain is too old to be President, but younger voters are more accepting of his age than older voters.
• GOP youth are trying to put together their own convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul this summer.
• Obama made the news twice this week. First for withdrawing from the campaign finance system. Act Blue weighs-in on that decision (in favor of Obama’s decision). Second, Obama came out in support of the FISA “compromise.” Greg Sargent and Glenn Greenwald weigh-in on why this was extremely disappointing.

I'm heading out shortly to tape for GritTV with Laura Flanders. We're doing a one-hour panel on the youth vote and a half-hour segment on Youth to Power. Be back online this afternoon.

• At Campus Politico, Ben Adler notes that summer break is putting a crimp in plans to register and organize students.
• At AlterNet, Courtney Martin talks about growing up a Millennial and how race and gender play differently on the campaign trail for younger voters.
• Republicans have a new blog dedicated to reaching "Generation Next" online. It involves crayons.
• Salon notes rising youth turnout, and while they are still skeptical, admit that young voters could be a factor in November.
• Barack Obama has 1 million supporters on Facebook.
• The "American Dream" as our parents knew it is dead, argues Anya Kamenetz, but she's got some suggestions on what a new American Dream might look like. Long live the American Dream!

Appearing in Michigan today, Barack Obama unveiled his plan to increase college affordability:

College affordability: John McCain doesn’t have a real plan to put college within reach

When it comes to education, Senator McCain is out of touch with the needs of hardworking Americans. It’s not just that he doesn’t have a real plan to make college affordable; it’s that he’s voted time and time again to stop us from making college affordable. A couple of years ago, he even voted against funding for students so he could protect billions of dollars in corporate tax loopholes.

Barack Obama’s plan to make college affordable for every student:

Provide a $4,000 American Opportunity Tax Credit. This fully refundable credit will ensure that the first $4,000 of a college education is completely free for most Americans, and will cover two-thirds the cost of tuition at the average public college or university. Recipients of the credit will be required to give back by serving their community for 100 hours a year, either during the school year or over the summer.

Eliminate Costly Bank Subsidies. Obama will save taxpayers billions by eliminating the more expensive private loan program that exists today, and directing that money into direct aid for students. A transition to the direct lending system will also ensure that access to federal financial aid isn’t disrupted future market turmoil.

Simplify the Application Process for Financial Aid. The current application for federal financial aid is longer and more involved than many federal tax return. Obama will simplify the financial aid process by eliminating the current form altogether. Instead, he’ll base aid on a much simpler but equally accurate formula, so that students can predict their eligibility well in advance. And families will be able to apply simply by checking a box on their tax form, eliminating the need for a separate application.

Create a Community College Partnership Program. This initiative will help community colleges analyze what skills are needed to prepare students to work in local industry, and rewarding success by providing grants to community colleges that graduate more students and increase the number of their students who transfer to four-year colleges.

Help Students Become Aware of College Readiness. Too many high school students discover they are unprepared for college when it’s already too late. Barack Obama will provide $25 million in matching funds annually to states that develop Early Assessment Programs that help inform students early what they’ll need to do to prepare for college.

Most of you have probably already heard that the latest Public Policy Polling survey has Barack Obama with a double digit lead over McCain - 50 - 39%. The Party is unifying behind Obama, allowing him to overtake McCain in states where he previously trailed.

So how are youth factoring into that equation? I took a look at what crosstab data is available (pdf), and, according to PPP, it doesn't look like Ohio youth are giving Obama much help at all.

You may remember that in the Ohio Primary, Sen. Obama crushed Senator Clinton among Ohio youth - 61 - 35%. Considering that young voters in Ohio participated in the Democratic primary over the GOP primary at a rate of almost 3 - 1 (pdf), it would be expected that Obama would blow-out McCain among Ohio youth.

My only explanation is sample size. Young voters were 17% of the sample (n=773), or about 131 respondents. The margin of error for the youth numbers could be huge.

The flip side of this equation is that if the PPP survey royally screwed up it's youth sample, that would mean that Obama might hold an even greater lead in Ohio than the survey indicates . . . anyone more savvy with numbers than me have thoughts on this?

This is something to watch - and another reason why we need more reliable youth polling. A lot of youth organizations will be on the ground in Ohio. For a variety of reasons (cell phone/lack of landlines, small sample sizes, etc.) most polls fail to adequately survey younger voters. It would be nice to have solid data about what youth are thinking and how we can best talk to them about the election. Particularly in the major battleground states.