Turnout Updates and Thoughts on Hillary and the 25 - 29 Year Olds

CIRCLE has updated their stats (pdf) now that all precincts are reporting in, and it looks like turnout was even higher than we reported last night. The final youth turnout is 43%, more than double the turnout from 2004.

I've been thinking about why the 25 - 29 year old chose Clinton over Obama, especially after Obama scored such a huge victory in that demographic in Iowa. I've got three theories, neither of which I have access to the data so that I could actually prove it:

1. This is Hillary's old lead among non-college youth rearing its head. Maybe NH has a lot of college grads migrate away to the Boston area or other places.
2. Her field operation was great, and it happened to encompass young professionals (who will probably be in the bigger cities, which she won, more than rural areas or college towns). So even without a big youth focus, she did good peer to peer fieldwork on that older demographic, and her big messaging push towards youth at the end pushed her over the top.
3. It's also been suggested to me that Hillary came out big among women in the 25 - 29 group, as part of her overall surge among women in the state. This is possible, though I believe I heard numerous talking heads looking at the data say that most of her gains among women were from those over 30.