New Hampshire Youth Turnout Doubles; Clinton Eats Into Obama's Base (Updated)

Update: CIRCLE has revised their turnout analysis upwards. More here.
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In yesterday's New Hampshire primary, turnout among young voters doubled over 2004 levels. With almost all precincts reporting in, an analysis by CIRCLE, the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (pdf), showed that turnout among voters under 30 hit a high of 37%, up from 18% in 2004. In total, CIRCLE estimated that 72,041 young people made it to the ballot box on Tuesday, making up 16% of the total electorate. This continued a trend of rising participation among young voters begun in 2004, when youth turnout in the general election rose by 4.3 million votes over 2000 levels. These numbers are initial estimates, and actual turnout numbers are likely to rise as the final precincts report their results.

This was not the only trend continued by yesterday's primary vote. Once again the Democratic field had a much stronger showing among young voters than did Republicans. Just over 61% of all New Hampshire voters under 30 participated in the Democratic Primary, vs. just 39% in the Republican primary. This mimicked the results of the 2006 midterm elections, in which young voters chose Democratic candidates by a margin of 60 - 38%, and was only slightly below the results of last week's Iowa caucus, in which significantly more young voters participated in Democratic caucuses than those held by the GOP. Additionally, young voters made up a much higher percentage of the Democratic primary electorate, and exit polls by CNN show that a larger number of voters under 30 cast a ballot than did older voters in their 30's or over 65.

In one respect, yesterday's election was quite different from the Iowa caucuses. While Senator Barack Obama rode to victory in Iowa on a wave of youth support, last night it was Senator Clinton who was victorious, mainly due to large gains she made among women and young voters. After losing the youth vote to Senator Obama by a 5-1 margin in Iowa, Clinton spent the last 5 days on a course correction that saw her messaging heavily to young voters. This was on top of a months long field operation that was already targeting young voters, and seems to have had particular success among young professionals, if not the college crowd. As a result of her efforts, Clinton was able to narrow Obama's 57 - 10% lead among 18 - 25 year olds to 60 - 22%, and, most incredibly, turn a 57 - 15% deficit among 25 - 29 year olds into a 37 - 34% victory over her rival. Exit polling indicates that Clinton won by regaining her lead among women and by cutting into Obama's base.

The message coming out of New Hampshire is clear: young voters continue to trend towards and Democrats and participate more than ever. Paying attention to young voters can pay huge dividends, as the Clinton campaign has demonstrated. We're in a slugfest now, a showdown between Clinton and Obama, with both of them potentially fighting it out for the youth vote as one of the crucial blocs to swing the election. That's not a bad place to be, for our generation or for the Democratic Party. Millennials will likely be 25% of the eligible electorate in November, and we will be 36% by 2015 (pdf). Studies have shown that partisanship is a habit (pdf) that locks in early in life. Securing the allegiance of Millennials now is the basis for building a future majority for the Democratic Party, and hopefully progressive politics. Having two superstar candidates fight tooth and nail for young voters' attention doesn't seem like a bad way to earn that loyalty.