Young Voters in the 2008 Primaries

A new report by The Century Foundation takes all of the CIRCLE, YVS and Green/Gerber research from the last 7 years, rolls it up into a ball, and throws out a terrific summary of what's happened with the youth vote in the last 4 years. Campaign staffers looking to convince their boss that young voters are worth the time and effort should carry this report with them at all times, because it's one of the best summaries I've seen (and highly readable at only 11 pages).

Of interest to me were the stats on youth turnout and share of the population in the early primary states.

Here's where we stand. In 2004, young voters made up somewhere around 1/5 of the primary electorate in the early states. In Iowa, youth turnout in the caucuses quadrupled (pdf) in 2004, and 18-29 year olds constituted a larger share of the electorate than 30-44 year olds. In New Hampshire, young voters also increased their primary turnout (at pace with the rest of the electorate). In three of the first primary states, youth participation in the general election increased substantially in 2004 and in 2006.

All the signs point towards a continuation of that trend - we have a youth electorate that is more engaged than previous generations at this point in the cycle, a competitive primary with two exciting candidates that are picking up youth support, and a general election that many see as one of the most important in their lifetime. Additionally, young voters are more likely than ever to participate in a Democratic primary or caucus. 58% of young voters (pdf) identify as Democrats vs. 36% Republican and only 6% Independent. Because Iowa and Nevada both have same-day registration, and New Hampshire allows unaffiliated voters to participate in either primary, upwards of 64% of all young people who vote in January might be participating in the Democratic primary/caucus.

What does this mean? Young people will have a larger say in who our nominee is than at any point in recent history. Seeing how the Millennial Generation will be bigger than the Baby Boom when all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see young voters comprise 1/4 of the primary electorate in some of the early states this year. And here's the other thing: because they're more likely to lack a land-line telephone, most of these kids are not getting included in the polling of Iowa and New Hampshire that we're seeing. Yeah. 20-25% of the electorate is unaccounted for in most of the polling we're seeing.

What does that translate into for the candidates? That is less clear. Obama is polling higher at the number 1 choice for young voters, but Hillary pulls ahead when you add first and second choice - an important point in Nevada and Iowa, where many candidates will be declared "non-viable," forcing voters to their second choice. It's also correcting for RT Strategies decision to muck up the results by including Gore in their poll.

If Hillary is pulling a lot of that huge 19 point jump in support from Gore, then Obama is in trouble, as it eliminates one of the few advantages he is perceived to hold over the other candidates. At that point, it will come down to organization. Can he more effectively organize his youth support to maintain a respectable finish in Iowa and gain momentum moving into Nevada and New Hampshire?

In this, the clock is also against Obama. The Both the Nevada and Iowa caucuses are currently scheduled after the start of the school year - essentially clumping all of his support into a few campuses - less useful in a caucus than in a primary where sheer numbers matter, not geographic dispersal of support (here Hillary also holds an advantage as her youth support is less from college students than from non-college).

Edwards also gets a significant bump when 2nd choices are considered. Again, I wonder if he's pulling that from Gore, or if he's playing second fiddle to some Obama and Clinton supporters. It's an interesting scenario, especially given the way the race is shaping up in Iowa, which will largely dictate what happens in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Unfortunately, we can't get much more clarity without knowing more about what young Iowa voters think or what role Gore is really playing as spoiler in the polling data.

Raw data on the February 5th primary states provided after the jump.