Stu Rothenberg: Youth Vote is Key Constituency for Midterm Success, and the DCCC Knows It

Writing at Roll Call, Stuart Rothenberg notes that Democrats are going to face an uphill battle in a number of districts during the 2010 midterms (an analysis recently backed up at Open Left by Mike Lux). That's to be expected after 2 landslide elections. What is unexpected about Rothenberg's analysis is his proposed solution for Democrats: maintain the interest of the youth vote and African Americans.

At least nine Democratic-held districts in five different states — Alabama’s 2nd (Rep. Bobby Bright) and 5th (Rep. Parker Griffith), Ohio’s 1st (Rep. Steve Driehaus) and 15th (Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy), North Carolina’s 8th (Rep. Larry Kissell), Virginia’s 2nd (Rep. Glenn Nye) and 5th (Rep. Tom Perriello), and Georgia’s 8th (Rep. Jim Marshall) and 12th (Rep. John Barrow) — could see a steep drop-off in the midterm among demographic groups that were energized by Obama’s candidacy and supported Democratic candidates across the board last cycle.

Eight of the districts have sizable African-American populations, including Ohio’s 1st district, which is more than one-quarter black and includes most of Cincinnati and Hamilton County.

The other district, Ohio’s 15th, is based in Columbus and includes Ohio State University, a huge source of young voters for the Obama campaign. (Younger voters are also important in Virginia’s 5th, which includes Charlottesville and the University of Virginia.)

This sounds familiar, doesn't it? That's because it is the exact same analysis produced by Obama/DNC Pollster Cornell Belcher as a sort of "exit interview" on Howard Dean's tenure at the DNC.

Rothenberg goes on to point out that young voter turnout tends to drop precipitously during midterm elections (which is true), however he fails to note that 2006 was the first midterm election in decades in which youth turnout increased, and that young voters swung critical races including the Montana and Virginia Senate races (pdf).

The 2006 midterms were also the elections in which we first began to see a huge swing among young voters away from Republicans and towards the Democrats.

To his credit, Rothenberg understands - and spotlights - the importance of partisanship in voting habits, not just "share of the electorate," when calculating the impact that young voters will have in the 2010 cycle:

Along with the drop in turnout is the corresponding, but different, issue of vote choice. While black voters and 18-29-year-olds turned out in bigger numbers last year, they also gave a much greater percentage of their vote to Obama (and presumably to other Democratic candidates).

Without Obama on the ballot to bring out voters or define the overall election by his candidacy, it is uncertain how the two key voting groups will cast their ballots in individual contests. Some of these voters might return to their traditional voting preferences, especially if a number of Republican moderates are on the ballot.

It's an important point, but I think that Rothenberg's concern-trolling is unfounded. We already saw record youth turnout in the midterms with a huge partisan advantage towards the Dems during 2006. Obama was not on the ballot then, just as he won't be in 2010.

Studies show that partisanship is a habit (pdf), and many young voters have now sided with the Democrats in at least two, if not three election cycles. Their partisan loyalties are likely locked in for life. For these voters, it's not so much a worry that they will go back to voting for the Republicans (as if the Republicans have even given them anything close to a reason to do so), rather, it's about running solid GOTV programs to get as many as possible to show up at the polls. So it's good to read that the DCCC is working on such programs:

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) has already sat down with Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine to discuss how the two committees can coordinate their efforts to turn out Democrats next November.

Party insiders say their efforts will include targeting, messaging and building an infrastructure that will help national Democratic groups help Members’ campaigns to turn out key groups.

While strategists already can identify those districts where a drop-off in voting by African-Americans and younger voters could prove fatal to Democratic incumbents, the DCCC plans for much more elaborate targeting to allow the committee to communicate with those voters.

The DCCC also plans on investing resources into developing and refining its messaging to those voters. With the committee regarding “message” as an integral part of its field program, the DCCC is likely to engage in some extensive message testing to find out the best way to mobilize Obama voters who might otherwise sit out the midterm elections. [...]

Finally, the DCCC will work with individual Members’ campaigns to build an infrastructure — and a tailored field campaign — in each district.

How effective they will be remains to be seen - the DCCC has hired Marlon Marshall, who ran Hillary Clinton's field operation, to run these programs. The Clinton campaign did not do well with young voters or African Americans.