If Iowa Moves, is Obama Screwed?
Update II: So people tell me that yes, the amount of delegates per precinct is fixed, and loading up highly populated precincts is worthless. Making the answer to my question and emphatic NO. In fact, an earlier caucus probably helps the Obama campaign as it would spread their support across the state, and young Iowans who leave the state to attend school would be home at their parents' houses.
Update: I posted this in a couple places, and I'm getting pushback that the earlier caucus would be a boon to Obama because his support would be spread across the state - more valuable in a caucus than in a primary. I confess to not being able to wrap my head around the intricacies of the caucus process. So I'm basically unable to determine whether that is true or not. It strikes me that it could be true. But also that it would be valuable for the youth vote to tip a few highly populated precincts/districts Obama's way and for the campaign to rely on their other constituencies in more rural districts. Frankly I don't know.
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It appears that our shifting primary schedule may be throwing a wrench into the gears of the Obama turnout strategy.
Right now, the Iowa Caucus is set for Monday, January 14th. I was listening to The Gabfest - Slate's political podcast - this morning, and heard that January 14th, which is a Monday, doubles as the first day of classes for most Iowa universities. That's great for Obama - it means that lots of out-of-state kids are back at school and eligible to vote in the Caucus. It means that tens of thousands of potential supporters are centrally located in a few hubs across the state. It makes the turnout game that much easier for Barack in a race where he needs to at least come in second if he's to blunt Hillary's momentum.
If the caucus is moved up to earlier in the year, however - a likely possibility - Obama's Iowa strategy becomes MUCH harder to execute. Thousands of potential supporters won't even be in the state - they'll be at their parent's house celebrating the New Year and packing up for next semester. Those that are in-state will be scattered across the plains and will require much more work to turnout.
I'm sure the decision to move (or not) the caucus will be made with plenty of time to spare for campaigns to adjust their strategy, but either way you shake it, an earlier primary looks like bad news for Obama and good news for Edwards or Hillary, who are relying on older constituencies to deliver the votes.
2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

Breaking News
Political Wire:
Poll Shows Obama Expanding Lead NationallyA new a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/05/16/fox-news-poll-obama-pulls-ahead-romney-as-presidential-race-heats-up/"Fox News poll/a finds Presdent Obama leading Mitt Romney by seven points ...Think Progress:
New York And Los Angeles City Councils Approve Responsible Banking OrdinancesCity councils in the nation’s two largest cities have approved laws aimed at forcing banks to invest more in their local communities. The Los Angeles city council unanimously passed its ...Political Wire:
RNC Will Bypass Nevada GOP"Fed up with an inept and self-destructive GOP apparatus in Nevada, the Republican National Committee and the Mitt Romney campaign have decided to erect a 'shadow state party' in this critical swing ...Think Progress:
CHART: Wages For Young Colleges Graduates Haven’t Grown In A DecadeAccording to data from the Economic Policy Institute, “between 2000 and 2011, the wages of young college graduates [aged 21-24] dropped 5.4 percent (1.6 percent for men and 8.5 percent for ...The Plum Line:
Greg Sargent: Happy Hour Roundup* Dylan Byers can’t get the Sunday shows to explain why they refuse to discuss the too-hot-to-handle Mann/Ornstein thesis that, yes, one side is far more to blame for what’s gone wrong in ...
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