CBS/MTV/NYT: Obama's "Likely Voter" Problem

So I do not have an answer to Matt's Gordian knot. And technically since I'm on vacation, I don't think I'm required to. But I do have one quick thing to add to all of the discussion about the new CBS/MTV/NYTimes Poll. (I'd also recommend checking out Jonathan Singer's rundown on the numbers over at MyDD).

Despite all the great discussion, no one seems to be reporting on this little fact that made it into the CBS story but is no where to be found in the New York Times artice:

Among those who plan to vote in the Democratic primaries, 29 percent are enthusiastic about Clinton and 26 percent about Obama.

Yeah, among likely caucus/primary going young voters, Clinton is beating out Obama in this poll. It's within the margin of error, but seriously - this is counter to the conventional wisdom of the '08 narrative thus far.

Earlier this week (here and on MyDD), I wrote about the Horse Race and the Youth Vote narrative. In that post, I noted that Barack was leading among young voters, but Clinton was nipping his heels, despite lacking a visible youthroots movement. I speculated that maybe those numbers were just smoke and mirrors - reflections of her huge name recognition. This poll adds more weight to the theory that Clinton may be just as much in the youth vote race as Obama.

Obama's campaign rests on a high youth turnout to negate Clinton's advantages in other areas. If Hillary is pulling even among young voters, and her supporters are more likely to turnout, what does that mean for the Obama campaign? What does it mean for the youth vote narrative in the media?

This certainly casts the New York Times story in doubt, which Adam Nagourney ended with this conclusion:

More important, though, at least for Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama is the impression this group has of them. In the poll, 43 percent of respondents said they held an unfavorable view of Mrs. Clinton, a number that reflects the tide of resistance she faces nationwide. By contrast, only 19 percent said they had an unfavorable view of Mr. Obama.

Convenient that he left out the one piece of information from the poll that disputed his conclusion.