CIRCLE Predicts Youth Surge Could Impact Midterm Elections

CIRCLE issued a press release yesterday announcing the results of its analysis of youth voting trends in midterm election. The results look good for Democrats.

Turnout will probably be up - though not as high as 2004:

The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) compiled data on the midterm cycles nationwide -- and by state -- since 1974 to get a sense of what the nation might expect this fall. In the most recent midterm election in 2002, 22 percent of young adults voted. However, the best comparison to this year's election may be the 1994 midterm, because it was the last midterm to follow a similar surge in youth voting. In 1994, 26 percent of 18- to 29-year olds voted. State and national fact sheets can be found at http://www.civicyouth.org.

"The increased mobilization efforts to get young people to the polls in 2004 likely contributed to the spike in young voters. The level of mobilization will be lower this year, but probably at least as high as it was in 2002. All political parties should work to mobilize this large group of potential voters," said Peter Levine, director of CIRCLE. "We did see additional increases in turnout in student-dense precincts in 2005 local and state elections. And we now know from experimental studies that mobilization in one election still motivates people in the next election."

And who will these voters most likely cast their ballots for? (emphasis mine)

As for partisanship among young Americans, in a poll CIRCLE conducted this summer, young people were more likely than adults 30 and older to identify as strictly independents (26 percent vs. 18 percent) and less likely to identify as Republicans (28 percent vs. 35 percent). Compared to 2002, somewhat more young adults are identifying as independents (up 2 points) though slightly fewer identify as Democrats (down 1 point).

Our generation seems to be fleeing the parties altogether in favor of independent status, but we are clearly a demographic in which progressives hold an advantage, and campaigns should be doing their damndest to get to speak to us and get us to the polls. CIRCLE has some solid advice on how to do that - much of which is echoed frequently here on this site. Catch those after the jump.

And check out CIRCLE's excellent research/stats area on young voter turnout and political attitudes.

Can anyone say Living Liberally?

-- Personalized and interactive contact counts. The most effective way of getting a new voter is the in-person door knock by a peer; the least effective is an automated phone call. Canvassing costs $11 to $14 per new vote, followed closely by phone banks at $10 to $25 per new vote. Robocalls mobilize so few voters that they cost $275 per new vote. (These costs are figured per vote that would not be cast without the mobilizing effort.)

-- Begin with the basics. Telling a new voter where to vote, when to vote and how to use the voting machines increases turnout.

-- The medium is more important than the message. Partisan and nonpartisan, negative and positive messages seem to work about the same. The important factor is the degree to which the contact is personalized.

Also noted:

-- In ethnic and immigrant communities, start young. Young voters in these communities are easier to reach, are more likely to speak English (cutting down translation costs), and are the most effective messengers within their communities.

-- Initial mobilization produces repeat voters. If an individual has been motivated to get to the polls once, they are more likely to return. So, getting young people to vote early could be key to raising a new generation of voters.

-- Leaving young voters off contact lists is a costly mistake. Some campaigns still bypass young voters, but research shows they respond cost-effectively when contacted.

"We've heard the complaint from campaigns for years that young people don't vote and aren't easy to reach," said Heather Smith, director of Young Voter Strategies. "What we know is that this generation is paying attention and if you ask them, young people will vote. And if you give them useful and relevant information in a personal way, they will be even more likely to vote."