The New York Times on Youth Voting: Almost Informative
In today's New York Times, Janet Elder writes about youth voting and outreach for the 2008 cycle. She posits that in this election candidates are "putting a lot of energy into courting the youth vote", which apparently consists of putting links on your site to YouTube, MySpace, and Facebook, as well as *gasp* hiring "youth vote coordinators to mobilize young voters." I know it's shocking that multi-million dollar campaigns would devote an entire staff member to youth outreach, but apparently it's true.
But what will come of all of this energy? Well, according to Elder's magic 8 ball "Outlook not so good."
But Web links and vote coordinators aside, are voters under the age of 25 going to turn out in record numbers? History suggests it is unlikely.
Eighteen year-olds cast ballots for president for the first time in 1972, following the ratification of the 26th amendment. Nearly 50 percent of 18-24 year olds voted. Since then, turnout among this age group has varied.
The only evidence that Elder provides is the difference in voting in the two Clinton elections (1992 and 1996). She also seems to recognize the reason in the steep dropoff- that young voters didn't think their issues were being addressed in 1996, as opposed to 1992 when there was some excitement around Clinton's candidacy and the "hope" that it provided. I was too young to vote in 92, and I did vote for Clinton in 96 (or at least tried, via an absentee ballot, since I was living in Israel at the time) but I, for one, certainly fell into that group.
As the article notes:
Michael McDonald, professor of government and politics at George Mason University “Turnout among young voters or any group with traditionally low participation depends a lot on how interesting the election itself is.”
I know it is shocking to think that people only vote when they feel that it is relevant and important, but maybe if campaigns started devoting more time and energy on tackling the problems that young people care about. And what do young people care about?
In addition to the war and the desire to change the direction of the country, young voters say they are worried about getting their working lives started. They are concerned about jobs, the economy and healthcare. Ms. Lake, the Democratic pollster said that in her research, young voters place “economic issues like college affordability ahead of the war.”
So maybe the candidates should spend less time putting up "web links" (which I suppose is old person speak for a hyperlink) and spend more time passing legislation that aims to ease the burden being placed on the backs of our generation.
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Missed opportunity
I feel like this article, and the article published a week or so ago on ABC News, represent missed opportunities.
This article was a bit better, in that it did use data to acknowledge that there was a spike in 2004, but what these articles are not mentioning is the Millennial component. Millennials are supposed to be a modern rendition of the GI Generation — extremely civically involved. Surely that has some kind of influence here?
I can’t wait until November 2008 when these blowhards are proved wrong by an amazing turnout from youth voters.
Changing the narrative
I think you are right, which is why it’s important to write in when these articles are published. But it’s really difficult to change the narrative around the youth vote. It’s taken years just to get to the point we are at now, where you have a mix about that speak mostly positively about the youth vote, and how campaigns are now reaching out.
There’s a lot of work and data collection and messaging behind that change.
Getting reporters convinced that this represents a longterm change in the habits of Millennials compared to previous generations is going to take even more work. Disciplined messaging by lots of youth groups, and it will probably also require a “threepeat:” young voters turning out in higher numbers yet again in November ‘08.
You’re right, but it’s a long game to make that change. Think of it otherwise, and you’ll get frustrated and burn out.