IOP Study: Obama leads among youth; Clinton leads among women; and Edwards who?

The spring 2007 Harvard IOP survey provides us with a snap shot of some early impressions young people have of the 2008 elections. The poll was conducted online by Harris Interactive. They surveyed a large sample; however these are individuals that have opted into Harris Interactive for online polling for their demographic. Don’t get me wrong, this is a step in the right direction, as IOP used to conduct these studies by conducting phone surveys.

Young people (42%) say they will definitely vote in a 2008 primary or caucus and are interested in volunteering (52%) for a presidential campaign if they are provided with an opportunity. I hope this is the case. It will be interesting to see if any of the presidential campaigns actually invest in voter registration and GOTV efforts. Campaigns would have to tailor their communications to young people and to the caucus and primary rules for each state. For example, in the earlier primary states college students could be encouraged to request an absentee ballot during Thanksgiving Break or Winter Vacation. It would be smart (and a necessity) for all campaigns to have a youth GOTV strategy for the primary that is aware of college schedules.

Party Affiliation and Candidate Ranks:

The Edwards numbers were a little surprising, as he has been building a national network of young people through his One Corps. I was also surprised by Obama’s significant lead over Clinton among college students. I don’t think Obama has a lock on the youth vote. Senator Clinton has a window through the summer and fall to define and introduce herself to young voters. I believe young people (being one) don’t have the love or hate position toward Senator Clinton that is often seen throughout the adult population. Many young voters were born around the time Gov. Dukakis ran for president, were in kindergarten during Hillary’s healthcare fight, and were in 4th or 5th grade during the impeachment witch hunt.

2004 Democratic Primary Youth Facts:
In the states where there were exit polls in 2004, approximately 749,000 young people (age 18-29) voted in the 2004 Democratic primaries. Youth turnout was 9.84 in 2000 and 9.85 in 2004. The number of young voters in Democratic primaries increased in IA, DE, OK and MD. The number of young voters decreased in CA, CT, NY, and RI.

More on the poll - Young people agree (61%) that basic health insurance is a RIGHT for all people and if someone has no means of paying for it, the government should provide it. They believe (53%) that religious values should NOT play a more important role in government. Young people also have NOT discussed with their friends (82%) the genocide in Darfur in the last few weeks and are NOT sure (54%) that the U.S, should do more in Darfur.

Gender and Race Preferences:

What do you think?