Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Survey on Young Evangelicals

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has released a new survey today on young evangelicals.

A recent survey conducted for Religion and Ethics NewsWeekly finds that young white evangelical Christians are less supportive of John McCain for president than their older counterparts. Although McCain maintains a solid winning margin among white evangelical Christians on the ballot, white evangelicals ages 18-29 are less supportive of his candidacy and express less favorable impressions of McCain than older white evangelical Christians.

While the survey shows McCain winning the young white evangelical demographic, the lead is much thinner than among evangelicals over 30: 62-30 McCain among white evangelicals under age 30 compared to 73-22.

This may at first not seem like a big deal, but it is. It shows that there is a clear opening for Democrats to make inroads with young white evangelicals, as well as a greater number of them supportive of Democrats that could work within the demographic to build more support.

Young white evangelicals view John McCain less favorably than their older counterparts: 54% vs. 68%. The biggest surprise is that young white evangelical women tend to not be sold on Sarah Palin. Only 46% rated her favorably, compared to their over-30 counterparts who gave her 65% positive ratings.

One of the big demographic changes between young and older white evangelicals is the view towards civil unions/same-sex marriage:

Fifty-eight percent of young white evangelicals support some form of legal recognition of civil unions or marriage for same-sex couples; a quarter (26 percent) support the full right for same-sex couples to marry. White evangelicals over age 30 are less supportive: forty-six percent favor some legal recognition, but only 9 percent of older white evangelicals favor full marriage rights.

While both young and older evangelicals feel similarly about abortion issues, this shift in regards to same-sex marriage shows a huge generational change on social issues.

Take-aways

• It is important for Democrats to make their case to young evangelicals. There is room for large gains, and it is important to do so before partisan identity is solidified.
• As the Millennials age the evangelical demographic will be much more favorable than it is now. The opportunities for marriage equality will also increase.
• Democrats should find and recruit Democratic-leaning young evangelicals to make further inroads into the demographic.