Obama Not Losing Ground with Youth; Economy Still Top Issue

Democracy Corps just released another poll in their Youth for the Win series, this time examining the state of the race between Obama and McCain, and testing messages that most resonate with young voters. Their conclusion: contrary to other assertions, Obama's lead among young voters is holding steady and the economy remains the top issue for young voters and the most successful way to maintain their support.

First let's look at the numbers. Earlier this week, Zogby released a "shocker" of a poll showing that Obama had lost 16 points and McCain had gained 20 among young voters, closing the gap to a 49 - 38% Obama lead among youth. At the time, I suggested that Zogby's sample size was much too small and that the numbers were still likely close to those we saw in teh 2006 election.

Today's Democracy Corps Poll - which has a much larger sample size and focused solely on young voters using a combination of landline, online and cellphone polling - confirms what I wrote: Obama maintains a stable 60 - 33% lead among young voters. For comparison, Kerry won the youth vote 54 - 45%, and in 2006 Democrats took the youth vote 60 - 38%. So not only is Obama's youth vote support holding stable overall, it is actually higher than Democratic support in any recent election.

Obama's support is softening among white, fiscally solvent youth. In that group he and McCain are statistically tied. However Obama has offset those losses by increasing his margin among young African Americans and young voters under financial strain. Among those financially burdened youth, Obama is actually outperforming the Democratic expectations:

The poll notes that the economy remains the #1 issue among young voters, but notes that the current debate - focused on the mortgage crisis, oil, trade and taxes - does not adequately address the economic concerns of young people, who are worried about gas prices, health care and medical bills, student debt, and entry level jobs. Addressing these issues is the best way to gain traction among young people (or shore up support), but also the achilles heel that could lower support for either candidate.

Democracy Corps notes that McCain's favorability ratings among youth are rising, in part fueled by worry over the economy and high gas prices. The gas issue is so strong among young voters, that it is even overcoming environmental concerns and more young people are becoming receptive to McCain's messages about drilling. While McCain has hammered Obama on these issues over the last month, Obama has yet to fight back. Absent such attacks, Obama is allowing McCain to make some inroads and define the issue.

Democracy Corps tested a number of messages - both positive messages on the economy from Obama, and attack messages to be directed against McCain - that it recommends organizers use to define McCain and shore up Obama's support: