More Young Republicans Voted Against McCain Than For Him
CIRCLE has finally released their fact sheet summary of youth turnout in the presidential primary contests. The numbers are much the same as what we reported last week. Here's what you need to know:
- In the states for which data is available, 6.5 million young voters (17 - 29) participated in either the Democratic or Republican Presidential primaries.
- Overall turnout rose from 9% (recorded in 2000, the last comparable cycle), to 17%.
- This is the third consecutive cycle in which youth turnout increased.
- This is the first time youth turnout has increased three cycles in a row since 18 - 20 year olds were first granted the right to vote in 1971.
- In the 17 states for which comparable exit polling is available from 2000, all but one state (New York) saw an increase in youth turnout.
- Of those 17 states, 10 saw at least a 10 point jump in youth turnout (NH, MA, GA, MO, TX, TN, IA, MS, OH, OK).
- Obama captured the Democratic youth vote 60 - 38%.
Also remember from the Rock the Vote's fact sheet and last week's post mortem that young voter's share of the electorate rose from 9.4% in 2004 to 14.3% in 2008, and young voters participated in the Democratic primary over the GOP primary at a rate of 2 - 1.
The most interesting piece of new data in the CIRCLE report is the candidate breakdown in the GOP contest. More young Republicans voted against John McCain than voted for him, and he barely inched out Mike Huckabee to capture a plurality of youth votes among the top 4 candidates. As for Ron Paul - the so-called GOP youth candidate, he only received 10% of the youth vote. Can we finally put to rest the fiction that Ron Paul is the conservative youth candidate? At best he had a highly tech savvy core of youth supporters that amounted to very little at the polls.
It was reported yesterday that Congressman Paul is holding his own "shadow convention" this year. It will be interesting to see who shows up.
2008 Youth Vote in Context
The following charts and graphs are meant to contextualize the unique role that young voters played in the 2008 election, and their increasingly important role in a winning electoral coalition:
2008 Youth Electoral Map

2004 Youth Electoral Map

Youth Vote Partisan Advantage: 2000 - 2008

Youth Vote Historical Support: 1976 - 2008

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Politics
This looks a great thing for Mr.McCain supporters,This will bring out the people into some doubts.The doubts are what will Mr.McCain turn into,It means what will be his aims?
................
Nishantha
From cyberspace to college
From cyberspace to college campuses, many young conservatives are worried that Sen. John McCain is not appealing to their generation.At a town hall meeting in Ohio this month, a student told McCain that Republicans were a dying breed on his campus.
"I understand the challenge I have, and I understand that this election is really all about the people of your generation," McCain said.
Many young Republicans said Sen. Barack Obama, the 46-year-old junior senator from Illinois, is inspiring voters their age, but McCain, the 71-year-old Arizona senator who has been in office since the early '80s, is not.
Eric Perlmutter, a Republican and student at the at the University of Southern California, said the roaring enthusiasm that follows Obama is missing among conservatives his age.
"We try to get people out to our college Republican meetings, but ... we can't seem to draw the same kind of vocal support," he said.
At the July town hall meeting in Portsmouth, Ohio, McCain said he knows that he has "a lot of work to do" with the younger voters.
The senator said he needs young conservatives to help spread his message for him, because "there's nothing that convinces young people like other young people."
McCain also acknowledged the importance of using the Internet to reach out to a generation that stays in touch via social networking sites.
On MySpace, Obama has more than 427,000 friends, compared with fewer than 60,000 for McCain.
Perlmutter said he cringed when McCain admitted he doesn't use e-mail. Obama, however, is frequently seen with Blackberry in hand.
Additionally, Perlmutter pointed out that the images used in McCain's campaign -- such as a message about small businesses showing a barber shop with a traditional red and blue pole -- hardly connect to the younger generation.
"Well, when you see the Main Street barber shop image, you think of 1950s America. An entrepreneur, a Silicon Valley guy would definitely make him more attractive," he said.
Obama also has increased his college-age appeal by holding rallies and giving speeches at hundreds of campuses.
McCain has said he recognizes that he needs to get out to those venues "where young people are engaged and receiving their information and forming their opinions."
"Sen. McCain should demand that these same colleges and universities host him or else their tax-exempt status could be in jeopardy," said Jason Mattera, spokesman for Young America's Foundation, a conservative outreach group.
McCain must work to connect young voters to conservative principles, Mattera said.
"So if they are suspicious of Uncle Sam telling them what Internet sites they can view, they should be equally suspicious of the federal government telling them what health care plan they are going to be a part of," he said.
According to a Pew Research Center study conducted between October and March, McCain has a big numbers gap to close.
The study found that the current generation of young voters, those who came of age during the President Bush years, are giving the Democrats a wide edge.
Fifty-eight percent of voters under 30 identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with 33 percent who said they identified or leaned toward the Republican Party.
The McCain campaign said it plans to increase the senator's presence on sites such as Facebook and MySpace in addition to the candidate making appearance on shows that appeal to younger viewers, such as "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart," "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" and the "Late Show with David Letterman."
In past elections, both parties have tended to put less focus on younger voters because historically, their turnout has been low.
With fewer than four months until the November election, McCain said he's confident he can convince young voters that he is the candidate for them.
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