Youth Vote at the Crossroads

Cross posted at The Nation.

After 17 months of campaigning, with five grueling months of primaries and caucuses, the Democratic nominating contest came to a close last night when Sen. Obama attained enough pledged delegates and super delegates to clinch the nomination. Hillary's non-concession speech notwithstanding, Barack Obama's coalition of young voters, independents, african americans, and what Chris Bowers calls "creative class" Democrats proved stronger than Clinton's older Democratic coalition. Obama is the nominee and, in the best possible world, will move on to become the next President of the United States.

This was an historic campaign on any number of levels - not least because of the glass ceilings that both major candidates breached with their impressive campaigns and photo-finish. It was also an historic campaign for young people, who emerged as major players in the race after over-performing in the Iowa caucus (pdf) and providing Senator Obama with the boost he needed to win the nomination. While race and gender divided the Boomers and alienated Democrats from themselves, such culture-war issues played little role in the decisions of young voters at the ballot box. Instead, Millennials of all race and ethnicities - men and women - voted overwhelmingly in favor of Senator Obama, making age one of the most accurate predictors of support in the race.

Obama's victory is our victory. Young voters walked precincts in the heat and snow for Obama. We caucused and cast our ballots. We contributed what we could and helped to out-raise one of the most impressive money-machines in Democratic politics. We designed posters and made videos. We recruited our social networks via Facebook and MySpace, and convinced our parents to switch their votes. In some states, like Iowa, we were the difference that pushed Obama over the edge. In others, we were part of a coalition that contributed to victory or kept the Senator competitive when he might otherwise have lost by a large margin. Senator Obama's nomination is the coming of age of a new generation in progressive politics, and here are just some of our credentials (from Rock the Vote - pdf):

• Over 6 million young people cast their ballots in this primary contest, more than double the turnout from 2004 or 2000 (the comparable years for Democrats and Republicans, respectively).
• Young people greatly increased their "share of the electorate" and were the driving force behind rising turnout.
• Young people voted Democratic more than 2 - 1.
• 4.9 million young voters cast their ballot for a Democratic candidate.
• Within the Democratic primary, young voters increased their share of the electorate from 9.4% in 2004 to 14.3% in 2008.
• With just a few exceptions, the media narrative has reversed. Whereas 5 months ago the youth vote barely registered on anyone's radar (except perhaps to mock Obama's strategy as a fool's errand), it is now regularly praised in the mainstream media. Time Magazine labeled 2008 the Year of the Youth Vote, and Business Week reported on the growing "YouthQuake."

This is only the beginning. The youth vote has increased in every major election since 2004 and by every indicator this is a trend which will continue.

Thanks to the long primary season, both the Clinton and Obama campaign contacted and registered new voters in every single state in the nation. Many of those new voters were under the age of 30. Combined with Obama's youth fellowship program and 50 state voter registration strategy, which will continue through the fall, and Howard Dean's own 50 state strategy, youth participation in the Democratic Party will grow by leaps and bounds over 2004.

But the DNC isn't alone. This summer and fall they will be joined by outside efforts conducted by partisan and non-partisan youth organizations alike. These groups - such as Rock the Vote, the New Voters Project, the Young Democrats, the Bus Federation, Swing Semester, and The League - will register over a million new voters online and make hundreds of thousands of contacts in the field. They will conduct non-traditional outreach to under-served groups that most campaigns miss, and they will put a cultural spin on political action that could turn new voters into life long activists.

Also driving increased turnout the rise of the Millennials, a highly progressive, civic-minded generation that believes in the importance of being engaged, their own power to effect change, and the suitability of government as a vehicle to make that change a reality. With their preferred candidate now leading the Democratic ticket, amidst a poisonous political climate that has set the country at odds with their progressive values, there seems little chance that the trends of the last four years will suddenly and unexpectedly reverse course.

Turnout will likely rise across the board this year. The voter registration numbers so far virtually guarantee it. But if trends hold, it will be up the most among Millennials, not just to the benefit of Obama, but to hundreds of candidates down ballot in close races where a few hundred new young voters can tip the balance. The youth vote is at a crossroads. There are challenges ahead to be sure, and nothing is guaranteed, but if things continue along this path, the youth vote stands ready to finally fulfill its promise - first looked for in 1971 with the passage of the 26th Amendment.