Indiana and North Carolina Primary Preview

Sorry this posted so late. Crazy day. - Mike

We're just a few hours away from the polls closing in North Carolina and Indiana and I wanted to put down some thoughts on the youth vote and what we might expect.

North Carolina
The demographics of the state heavily favor Obama. According to CIRCLE, young voters make up 21% of the eligible electorate in the state. Of that youth population, 25% are black/non-hispanic and 20% are college students, both demographics that heavily favor the Senator.

There are no exit polls from the 2004 primary (there were none according to Roper), so it will be difficult to make direct comparisons between today's vote and past primaries. The state has a form of early voting, and there weren't many indications that young people in the state would be disenfranchised. I'm looking for NC to have the higher youth turnout and share of the electorate this evening, and to break heavily for Sen. Obama among both the 18 - 24 and 25 - 29 demographics..

Indiana
Indiana is a distinctly different beast. According to CIRCLE, young voters make up 20% of the eligible electorate, but that population is much whiter and less likely to be located on a campus. Only 12% of those voters are black/non-hispanic, and 17% are current students. Less of the state's youth population is likely to have attended college or received a degree. This makes the state's young voters far more friendly to Clinton than North Carolina's.

Compounding these problems for Obama in Indiana is the recent photo-ID law upheld by the Supreme Court. The law requires that all voters have valid, state-issued photo ID. This places a heavy burden on students and young voters who move frequently and may not have valid driver's licenses. According to the Student PIRGs, this has already resulted in some students being turned away at the polls.

Because of this confluence of law and demographic factors, I'm looking for youth turnout to be low in Indiana. Obama will likely still carry the demographic, but it will be by a much smaller margin and the state affords Clinton the opportunity to claim a victory among the older, 25 - 29 year old cohort as she did in New Hampshire and a few other states.