Polling Data: Obama vs. Clinton vs. McCain

In what is becoming a fine tradition around these parts, here's more information courtesy of the Harvard IOP survey showing that McCain has a snowball's chance in hell of capturing the youth vote this year.

As you can see, Obama has a pretty much insurmountable 21 point lead among 18 - 24 year olds, and even Clinton has a healthy 7 point lead.

Digging into the cross tabs a bit more, we can see just where Obama's striking lead comes from. In match-ups vs. Sen. McCain, Obama outperforms Clinton among self-identified Democrats and Arican Americans, and seriously eats into Sen. McCain's youth base - young white voters. He also, amazingly, pulls young Republican voters away from McCain.

Notice also that a Clinton candidacy further opens the door for Demcoratic losses to third party candidate Ralph Nader. That's a little scary - particularly if you were around and voted in 2000.

One more significant finding in the IOP data is that Sen. Obama is currently polling 3x better among college students at this time in the campaign than Sen. Kerry was against President Bush at this time in 2004.

In March 2004, Sen. Kerry was leading 48 to 38% among college students. That margin basically held. On election day Kerry won all youth 54 - 45%. Obama currently leads McCain 54 - 28%. I would like to see that margin repeated this November.